PINR
"Liberia: Washington's Difficult Decision"
Mon Jul 14 03:38:21 2003
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July 14, 2003:

For a map of Liberia, visit the URL of this analysis at:
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=67

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"Liberia: Washington's Difficult Decision"
Drafted by Matthew Riemer on July 14, 2003
http://www.pinr.com

Now that it seems inevitable that the United States will become directly
involved in the conflict in Liberia -- aside from the small contingent of
troops already there protecting the U.S. embassy in Monrovia -- by possibly
committing ground troops, the prowess and scope of Washington's near-$400
billion military arsenal will once again be on display for the benefit of
foe and friend alike. Intervention in Liberia would represent a third front,
though one disparate from the broader "war on terrorism," undertaken by the
Bush administration since its inception two and a half years ago.

Yet despite its separateness from the more recognizable "war on terrorism"
and many Americans unfamiliarity with African politics, Liberia still
represents an opportunity for the Bush administration to show its commitment
to freedom and peace in the eyes of its domestic population as well as
internationally. Undoubtedly, similar observations have been made by
individuals such as Karl Rove: the strategic mastermind of U.S. President
George W. Bush's campaigning machine. Because of this, it is more than
likely that U.S. intervention in Liberia will function as a public relations
campaign for Washington on the domestic front as well as a display of
commitment for the benefit of African leaders.

The most fundamental and compelling reason for this motive is the fact that
Liberia is of little strategic value to the U.S. in the near-term -- whether
economically, militarily, or geographically -- considering the plethora of
conflicts and delicate relationships in the geopolitical world today.
Though, it must be conceded that West Africa as a region will most likely
increase in economic importance if the Middle East continues to destabilize.

The chief economic alliance in the region, of which Liberia is a member, is
the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that also includes
Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and
Togo. Of these states only Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria produce any petroleum
or natural gas to speak of -- though Nigeria does produce over 2 million
barrels of oil per day; Liberia only has the capacity to refine
approximately 15,000 bpd.

Of course, this is not to argue that a "democratic" or more stable West
Africa is not in the interests of the United States and other G8 states. But
with a host of other simmering conflicts on its plate, Washington is
seemingly most loosely tethered to Liberia and the African continent. The
only foreseeable benefit for the Bush administration when it comes to
intervention in Liberia, then, is one of image and perception and that,
possibly, some kind of instant victory could provide a counterweight to the
increasingly unpopular situation in Iraq and the almost forgotten conflict
in Afghanistan that still involves thousands of U.S. troops.

The presence of French troops in Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso and British
troops in Sierra Leone provides a small amount of stability for the region
as well as an opportunity for reconciliation with France. Cooperation with
the British and French in Africa could possibly be much to the White House's
advantage as many could see it as an altruistic joint effort between
globally important countries, which puts the diplomatic strains of the Iraq
debate firmly in the past.

However, the timing of Liberia's arrival in the international spotlight
comes at an imperfect juncture. With the imminence and incredible importance
of the 2004 presidential election in the United States, a wrong decision
regarding Liberia by the Bush administration -- one resulting
in "surprising" amounts of U.S. casualties or that begins to be described
as "long-term" -- could be disastrous for President George W. Bush's
reelection plans. But with President Bush's proclamations about commitment
to and partnership with Africa, it's being billed by many as an untenable
position to do nothing.

President Bush has already asked Liberian President Charles Taylor to remove
himself from the power, but Taylor has rebutted that he won't leave, even
though nearby Nigeria has offered him asylum, until peacekeeping forces have
taken over the security situation in the country. The main rebel group --
Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) -- has threatened
any international peacekeepers with violence if they intervene in Liberia.
At this point, West African states are planning on dispatching 2,000 troops
to Liberia. In the United States, former president Jimmy Carter has
recommended that the leadership in Washington also send 2,000 troops to help
placate the fighting.

Recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq foretell the possibilities awaiting in
Liberia for American forces, the White House, and the American public.
Recent polls have shown not only President Bush's approval rating falling,
but the American public's doubt over the course of the war in Iraq rising.
The Pew Research Center released a poll on July 8th in which it was revealed
that only 23 percent of Americans feel the military effort in Iraq is going
well compared to 61 percent who felt that way in mid-April.

This is predictably a function of two things: the amount of media coverage
now being given to the credibility of intelligence used in the lead up to
the war as both Washington and London warned the world on a daily basis
about the imminent threat of Saddam Hussein's regime in Baghdad, and the
daily casualties currently being sustained by U.S. forces in Iraq. The fact
that the White House has now issued a statement saying that information
pertaining to an alleged purchase of uranium from Niger by Saddam Hussein's
government was inaccurate and should not have been used in the State of the
Union address is creating even more doubt in an atmosphere where many
Americans are beginning to question the Bush administration's ability to run
itself effectively. The same Pew Research Center poll reveals that 24
percent of Americans now believe that war with Iraq was the wrong decision.

So the present time is one of a complex confluence of many crucial events,
and the Bush administration has a strenuous fifteen months ahead of it and a
difficult and fateful decision at its doorstep.

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication
that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various
conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches
a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral
judgments to the reader. PINR seeks to inform rather than persuade. This
report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written
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Liberia's Taylor: 'I'll Go When the Peacekeepers Come'
TIME Exclusive: Liberia's President Charles Taylor says he's waiting for foreign troops before leaving town
By STEPHAN FARIS/MONROVIA, LIBERIA

 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,464404,00.html   

aturday, Jul. 12, 2003
The man at the center of the Bush administration's dilemma over sending troops to Liberia is the country's controversial president, Charles Taylor. President Bush has said Taylor's departure is a precondition for sending in U.S. troops to help maintain order. Taylor says he'll go, but only after peacekeepers arrive. And, in an exclusive interview with Time, he denies UN charges that he's behind some of the region's worst war crimes.

Time: You've said you'll step down. When will you leave.

President Charles Taylor: As soon as the international forces get here, I think it's time to go. There are thousands of people in this country that are upset, that do not understand this at all. I'm not sure Africa understands this. The African union doesn't understand this. Because these calls, these harsh calls, were not coming from the African continent. So leaving a bloody civil war, leaving a void is not the thing to do. President Obasanjo (of Nigeria) did not take this action (of offering Taylor asylum) alone. This was a decision taken across the continent, and I have received invitations from other countries to come there. But I'll keep those names quiet.

As soon as (international troops) get here, get organized on the ground, then I'll leave.

Time: A force being sent by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is expected in a couple of weeks, but your mother's funeral is later this month. Will you leave as soon as the ECOWAS force arrives?

Taylor: Well, you're not going to want to leave my mother in the funeral parlor. The president of the ECOWAS force — let's say they got here in two weeks, three weeks. I'd say what, there's got to be a few days, not very long. They're not going to meet me at the airport, and say, "Hello guys, bye." No, that's not what I'm talking about. They get here. They meet the government. The defense people, work with them. I'm sure there'll be a little military ceremony. Don't forget there's a turning over. There's a new president that I'm turning over to. He's sworn into office. And he's going to be sworn in while they're here. One would see maybe a good working week, and no more than a good working week. If it's not the work of the devil, I don't know what it is. I mean, can anyone quarrel about orderly transition?

Time: Will you be asking for a immunity from prosecution?

Taylor: I'll tell you this. It's politically motivated and the politicians will have to correct their mess.

Time: Before you leave?

Taylor: No, I'm not worried about it. I think more will be done behind the scenes than on the pages of the newspapers. But there's a lot of work being done. Because how do they deal with a problem where the continent of Africa says we don't like this. It's wrong. Stop it. There's nothing you can do. Nobody can do anything about it. There's no one who's saying, we support it. And Obasanjo said, "I'm not doing this alone to give Mr. Taylor sanctuary." It was a decision taken across the board, even with some major Western countries. It's wrong. Where's the proof from the type of thing that said "Taylor financed?" (A UN-backed court in Sierra Leone has indicted Taylor for allegedly financing and training that country's murderous rebel group, the Revolutionary United Front). Jesus. With what? I came to power. I signed up with a budget of nothing. It grew to about $70 million. How does one fight an internal civil war, total breakdown of infrastructure in the country, no money, and then someone says that Taylor trained and armed and financed... Come on. Let's be serious.

But this whole script that was written. Let's destroy this guy. I would have a billion dollars and the war would still be going on? I would have wiped these guys out the first three months. A billion dollars, and no one can find the money... Where does any human being on this earth hide one million dollars? In a hole someplace? Come on, not in a banking institution anywhere in the world. Come on. It's a sad, sad case.

Time: U.S. officials are on the ground here (assessing the needs of a peacekeeping operation). I don't believe they visited you. I think they had to be forced to visit your defense minister. Are they signaling that, in their eyes, your government doesn't exist anymore?

Taylor: I do not read that into that. I called it the other day a diplomatic boo-boo, because there's no way that America can obscure that Charles Taylor is the elected president of Liberia. America is looked at as a big brother. Does a big brother invade a small brother's house? No. America is a big country, the world's only superpower. The procedure would be that even for the landing of troops, you'd inform us through a diplomatic note. But we don't mind that, we want them here anyway. They made certain moves the other day, that were not very rude — it was not thought of properly. We didn't make a big deal. There's not the time to be fussing about a few American troops coming here. Maybe someone was looking for an excuse not to be here. There will be no excuses. The doors are open. Even with the mistakes that they made. Even with ignoring this government, we don't mind. It's too late for someone to ignore me as president of the country.

Normally, you expect the good guys to win. You don't let the bad guys win. The elected president of this country is being told to leave office, and leave the country. The rebels who invaded, they have killed, maimed and slashed the entire countryside — there are films and videos of rebels eating human being's hearts and carrying on — they're being told you're the guys that we want to come to town. Isn't there something wrong here?

Time: How did the death of your mother affect you during the decisions of the last month?

Taylor: We had expected it for some time. When she left Boston last year, the doctors had given her until December and she lasted until June. She was very comforted over the fact and she passed. So I just intend to give her a good funeral and I'll be out of here. I guess in way she didn't want to be hauled around again, and I guess she just decided I'm going to take the burden off my son. (Taylor says the funeral is planned for the last week of July, and that it will be a state funeral.) I guess that will be one of the last official acts that I carry out as president, and then I guess I'll be out of here.

• Where Is Iraq War Instigator, Richard Perle? — William Hughes, Mon Jul 14 13:37