Iraq: Do U.S. Troops Encourage
Iraq's Insurgency?
Mon Dec 5, 2005 15:43
Monday, 05 December 2005
Iraq: Do U.S. Troops Encourage Iraq's Insurgency?
By Andrew Tully
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
Is Iraq doomed to civil war whether U.S. troops stay or go?
epa
U.S. President George W. Bush has said that the United States will not set even a provisional timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. forces until the Iraqis forces are properly trained and capable of ensuring security. But some say the presence of U.S. troops fuels the insurgency, and that their withdrawal would weaken the insurgency by splitting off the Sunni resistance from Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Washington, 5 December 2005 (RFE/RL) -- On 30 November, President Bush gave what the White House billed as a major speech on the war in Iraq.
Opponents of the war criticized the speech for not outlining an exit strategy from Iraq.
Senator John Kerry (Democrat-Massachusetts), who unsuccessfully challenged Bush for the presidency in 2004, cited a survey saying 80 percent of Iraqis want Americans to withdraw. He said this can only mean that the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq fuels the insurgency.
"The presence of our troops itself is a part of the current reality on the ground that presents food for the insurgency," Kerry said.
Few have challenged the accuracy of these surveys. But there is disagreement on what conclusions should be drawn from the evidence. James Phillips, who studies U.S. foreign policy and security issues at the Heritage Foundation, a private policy-research center in Washington, told RFE/RL that withdrawing the troops prematurely is not the solution.
"The presence of American troops could be a lightning rod for some strikes. [But] a sudden withdrawal could severely undercut the Iraqi government's ability to defend its own people from these terrorists," Phillips said. "So it's important that the U.S. remain a supportive presence. Eventually U.S. troops will come home, but it should be only when the Iraqis are strong enough to defend themselves."
Phillips isn't predicting when that day might come. But he said it's in the foreseeable future, given what he calls the gradually improving relations among Iraq's three principal ethnic groups.
He said the leaders of the Shi'ite majority, based in the south, have shown increasing restraint in dealing with the rival Sunnis, who dominate central Iraq. In turn, the Sunnis seem to have abandoned their reluctance to participate in the political process and work with the Shi'a, as well as the Kurds in the north.
"Over time, as they become mutually confident, there is a strong possibility for greater cooperation. And I think the Shi'ites know that they need the cooperation not only of the Sunnis but also the Kurds to preserve a unitary [unified] Iraq," Phillips said.
Retired General William Odom sees Iraq's future differently. Odom served as director of the National Security Agency under President Ronald Reagan, and is co-author of the book "America's Inadvertent Empire," a look at the United States' role in world affairs in the coming years.
Odom told RFE/RL that a U.S. withdrawal probably would bring the insurgency to an end. He noted that the focus of Al-Qaeda activity is in Sunni-dominated central Iraq. There are no Al-Qaeda operations in the Kurdish north because the Kurds won't tolerate its presence, and Al-Qaeda does little in the predominantly Shi'ite south, because, he said, "the Shi'ites will cut 'em apart."
A U.S. troop withdrawal, Odom said, will probably -- although not certainly -- mean that the Sunnis will no longer need the to cooperate with Al-Qaeda.
"What will happen if we [U.S. forces] pull out is that Al-Qaeda will go out of business there," Odom said. "It only is in business because the Sunnis need it as an ally because they [Al-Qaeda members] will kill Americans and Shi'ites. Iraq was very safe against Al-Qaeda before we [the United States] invaded. By invading, we made it open to Al-Qaeda. A withdrawal will, I think, very quickly extinguish Al-Qaeda there. The only way Al-Qaeda could stay in [Iraq] at all would be if a residual Sunni insurgency finds it useful and encourages it."
But Odom stressed that Al-Qaeda's likely departure doesn't mean the violence will end. Whether U.S. forces leave now or in 10 years, Iraq will almost certainly descend into civil war.
Odom said there are long-standing unreconciled differences among the Kurds, the Shi'a, and the Sunnis -- particularly between the Shi'a and the Sunnis. Saddam Hussein, he said, managed to suppress those differences, just as Josip Broz Tito did in the former Yugoslavia.
By deposing Hussein, Odom said, the United States allowed all these tensions to resurface. "We can't turn that around," he said. "We opened it up, now it's like once you've shot a man and killed him you can't say, 'Well, I can't afford to have committed murder.' Well, you just did."
Related Stories About Iraq:
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
# Hussein Lawyers Contest Tribunal's Legitimacy
# Kurds Claim Their Right To Oil
# 10 Marines Killed In Attack Amid Calls To Withdraw Troops
# New Surge Of Kidnappings Target Westerners
# Hamad Tries To Break The Cycle Of Sectarian Politics
# Regional Bloc Describes Its Loyalties
Other Articles Written By Andrew Tully:
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
# U.S.: Bush Speech On Iraq Focuses On Training Local Forces, Offers No Timetable
# U.S./Germany: Rice, Steinmeier Discuss Reported 'Secret Prisons'
# U.S./Afghanistan: Cremation Of Taliban Dead Leads To Fallout
# Iraq: U.S. Analysts Examine Iraqi Call For Troop Pullout
# US: Debate About Pre-War Intelligence Becoming Vicious
# Kosovo: U.S. Says Ethnic Albanians Must Demonstrate Good Governance
# U.S.: Bush Denies Torture Of Foreign Detainees
# Iraq: Kirkuk Suicide Bomber Believed To Be A Boy
# U.S.: Exposed CIA Agent’s Husband Criticizes Iraq War
# Middle East: Bush Meets With Abbas, Urges More Steps For Peace
====================
General William Odom and others have actually said or implied that the war is lost. ...
===============================
Hudson Institute > Learn About Hudson > Staff Bio
Biographical Highlights. Lieutenant General William E. Odom, US Army (Ret.), is
a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. ...
http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=OdomWill
Biographical Highlights
Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), is a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. As Director of the National Security Agency from 1985 to 1988, he was responsible for the nation's signals intelligence and communications security. From 1981 to 1985, he served as Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, the Army's senior intelligence officer.
From 1977 to 1981, General Odom was Military Assistant to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs, Zbigniew Brzezinski. As a member of the National Security Council staff, he worked upon strategic planning, Soviet affairs, nuclear weapons policy, telecommunications policy, and Persian Gulf security issues. He graduated from the United States Military Academy in 1954, and received a Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1970.
Publications and Media Exposure
General Odom’s latest book, America’s Inadvertent Empire, co-authored with Robert Dujarric, was published in early 2004 by Yale University Press. His previous book, Fixing Intelligence For a More Secure America, was published in January 2003 (Yale University Press). His book, The Collapse of the Soviet Military (Yale University Press, 1998), won the Marshall Shulman Prize. General Odom has also written America's Military Revolution: Strategy and Structure After the Cold War (American University Press, 1993); Trial After Triumph: East Asia After the Cold War (Hudson Institute, 1992); On Internal War: American and Soviet Approaches to Third World Clients and Insurgents (Duke University Press, 1992); and The Soviet Volunteers (Princeton University Press, 1973). He coauthored Commonwealth or Empire? Russia, Central Asia, and the Transcaucasus with Robert Dujarric (Hudson Institute, 1995).
General Odom has published articles in Foreign Affairs, World Politics, Foreign Policy, Orbis, Problems of Communism, The National Interest, The Washington Quarterly, Military Review, and many other publications. A frequent radio and television commentator, he has appeared on programs such as "The PBS News Hour," CNN, ABC's "Nightline", NBC News, C-Span, and BBC's "The World Tonight." He also is a periodic contributor to the op-ed pages of The NewYork Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and others.
Please contact General Odom via telephone at 202-223-7770 or by mail at 1015 18th Street NW, Suite 300 Washington, DC 20036.
Articles & Publications by William E. Odom
Viewing records 1 - 13 of 13
* Intelligence Community No Better than Its Policymakers 08/03/2004
* Retreating in Good Order 07/23/2004
* Fixing Intelligence Book Discussion as seen on C-Span 05/29/2003
* General Odom's Bibliography of Published Articles 05/23/2002
* Realism About Russia 04/26/2002
* TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE 04/17/2002
* Macedonia Crisis Shows Need for NATO Expansion 06/25/2001
* Buchanan Has It Backwards on Globalization 08/23/2000
* A Disaster Puts Putin in a Bind 08/23/2000
* 21st Century Directions in American Foreign Policy 04/01/2000
* Russia's Next Blunder 10/29/1999
* Losing Our Russian Illusions 11/01/1998
* Ratifying NATO Enlargement: Borah Versus Vandenberg 04/01/1998
Contact William E. Odom.
info@hudsondc.org
http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=OdomWill
============================
Retired general: Iraq invasion was 'strategic disaster'
William Odom, a Vietnam veteran, said the invasion of Iraq alienated America's
... in US history,” said Odom, now a scholar with the Hudson Institute. ...
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10488.htm
Try searching for General William Odom + Hudson on Google Book Search
Iraq: Do U.S. Troops Encourage Iraq's Insurgency?
By Andrew Tully
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
Is Iraq doomed to civil war whether U.S. troops stay or go?
epa
U.S. President George W. Bush has said that the United States will not set even a provisional timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. forces until the Iraqis forces are properly trained and capable of ensuring security. But some say the presence of U.S. troops fuels the insurgency, and that their withdrawal would weaken the insurgency by splitting off the Sunni resistance from Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Washington, 5 December 2005 (RFE/RL) -- On 30 November, President Bush gave what the White House billed as a major speech on the war in Iraq.
Opponents of the war criticized the speech for not outlining an exit strategy from Iraq.
Senator John Kerry (Democrat-Massachusetts), who unsuccessfully challenged Bush for the presidency in 2004, cited a survey saying 80 percent of Iraqis want Americans to withdraw. He said this can only mean that the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq fuels the insurgency.
"The presence of our troops itself is a part of the current reality on the ground that presents food for the insurgency," Kerry said.
Few have challenged the accuracy of these surveys. But there is disagreement on what conclusions should be drawn from the evidence. James Phillips, who studies U.S. foreign policy and security issues at the Heritage Foundation, a private policy-research center in Washington, told RFE/RL that withdrawing the troops prematurely is not the solution.
"The presence of American troops could be a lightning rod for some strikes. [But] a sudden withdrawal could severely undercut the Iraqi government's ability to defend its own people from these terrorists," Phillips said. "So it's important that the U.S. remain a supportive presence. Eventually U.S. troops will come home, but it should be only when the Iraqis are strong enough to defend themselves."
Phillips isn't predicting when that day might come. But he said it's in the foreseeable future, given what he calls the gradually improving relations among Iraq's three principal ethnic groups.
He said the leaders of the Shi'ite majority, based in the south, have shown increasing restraint in dealing with the rival Sunnis, who dominate central Iraq. In turn, the Sunnis seem to have abandoned their reluctance to participate in the political process and work with the Shi'a, as well as the Kurds in the north.
"Over time, as they become mutually confident, there is a strong possibility for greater cooperation. And I think the Shi'ites know that they need the cooperation not only of the Sunnis but also the Kurds to preserve a unitary [unified] Iraq," Phillips said.
Retired General William Odom sees Iraq's future differently. Odom served as director of the National Security Agency under President Ronald Reagan, and is co-author of the book "America's Inadvertent Empire," a look at the United States' role in world affairs in the coming years.
Odom told RFE/RL that a U.S. withdrawal probably would bring the insurgency to an end. He noted that the focus of Al-Qaeda activity is in Sunni-dominated central Iraq. There are no Al-Qaeda operations in the Kurdish north because the Kurds won't tolerate its presence, and Al-Qaeda does little in the predominantly Shi'ite south, because, he said, "the Shi'ites will cut 'em apart."
A U.S. troop withdrawal, Odom said, will probably -- although not certainly -- mean that the Sunnis will no longer need the to cooperate with Al-Qaeda.
"What will happen if we [U.S. forces] pull out is that Al-Qaeda will go out of business there," Odom said. "It only is in business because the Sunnis need it as an ally because they [Al-Qaeda members] will kill Americans and Shi'ites. Iraq was very safe against Al-Qaeda before we [the United States] invaded. By invading, we made it open to Al-Qaeda. A withdrawal will, I think, very quickly extinguish Al-Qaeda there. The only way Al-Qaeda could stay in [Iraq] at all would be if a residual Sunni insurgency finds it useful and encourages it."
But Odom stressed that Al-Qaeda's likely departure doesn't mean the violence will end. Whether U.S. forces leave now or in 10 years, Iraq will almost certainly descend into civil war.
Odom said there are long-standing unreconciled differences among the Kurds, the Shi'a, and the Sunnis -- particularly between the Shi'a and the Sunnis. Saddam Hussein, he said, managed to suppress those differences, just as Josip Broz Tito did in the former Yugoslavia.
By deposing Hussein, Odom said, the United States allowed all these tensions to resurface. "We can't turn that around," he said. "We opened it up, now it's like once you've shot a man and killed him you can't say, 'Well, I can't afford to have committed murder.' Well, you just did."
Related Stories About Iraq:
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
# Hussein Lawyers Contest Tribunal's Legitimacy
# Kurds Claim Their Right To Oil
# 10 Marines Killed In Attack Amid Calls To Withdraw Troops
# New Surge Of Kidnappings Target Westerners
# Hamad Tries To Break The Cycle Of Sectarian Politics
# Regional Bloc Describes Its Loyalties
Other Articles Written By Andrew Tully:
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/12/b42ddfb5-7920-444a-b773-82915e6fe5c1.html
# U.S.: Bush Speech On Iraq Focuses On Training Local Forces, Offers No Timetable
# U.S./Germany: Rice, Steinmeier Discuss Reported 'Secret Prisons'
# U.S./Afghanistan: Cremation Of Taliban Dead Leads To Fallout
# Iraq: U.S. Analysts Examine Iraqi Call For Troop Pullout
# US: Debate About Pre-War Intelligence Becoming Vicious
# Kosovo: U.S. Says Ethnic Albanians Must Demonstrate Good Governance
# U.S.: Bush Denies Torture Of Foreign Detainees
# Iraq: Kirkuk Suicide Bomber Believed To Be A Boy
# U.S.: Exposed CIA Agent’s Husband Criticizes Iraq War
# Middle East: Bush Meets With Abbas, Urges More Steps For Peace
====================
General William Odom and others have actually said or implied that the war is lost. ...
===============================
Hudson Institute > Learn About Hudson > Staff Bio
Biographical Highlights. Lieutenant General William E. Odom, US Army (Ret.), is
a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. ...
http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=OdomWill
Biographical Highlights
Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), is a Senior Fellow with Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University. As Director of the National Security Agency from 1985 to 1988, he was responsible for the nation's signals intelligence and communications security. From 1981 to 1985, he served as Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, the Army's senior intelligence officer.
From 1977 to 1981, General Odom was Military Assistant to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs, Zbigniew Brzezinski. As a member of the National Security Council staff, he worked upon strategic planning, Soviet affairs, nuclear weapons policy, telecommunications policy, and Persian Gulf security issues. He graduated from the United States Military Academy in 1954, and received a Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1970.
Publications and Media Exposure
General Odom’s latest book, America’s Inadvertent Empire, co-authored with Robert Dujarric, was published in early 2004 by Yale University Press. His previous book, Fixing Intelligence For a More Secure America, was published in January 2003 (Yale University Press). His book, The Collapse of the Soviet Military (Yale University Press, 1998), won the Marshall Shulman Prize. General Odom has also written America's Military Revolution: Strategy and Structure After the Cold War (American University Press, 1993); Trial After Triumph: East Asia After the Cold War (Hudson Institute, 1992); On Internal War: American and Soviet Approaches to Third World Clients and Insurgents (Duke University Press, 1992); and The Soviet Volunteers (Princeton University Press, 1973). He coauthored Commonwealth or Empire? Russia, Central Asia, and the Transcaucasus with Robert Dujarric (Hudson Institute, 1995).
General Odom has published articles in Foreign Affairs, World Politics, Foreign Policy, Orbis, Problems of Communism, The National Interest, The Washington Quarterly, Military Review, and many other publications. A frequent radio and television commentator, he has appeared on programs such as "The PBS News Hour," CNN, ABC's "Nightline", NBC News, C-Span, and BBC's "The World Tonight." He also is a periodic contributor to the op-ed pages of The NewYork Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and others.
Please contact General Odom via telephone at 202-223-7770 or by mail at 1015 18th Street NW, Suite 300 Washington, DC 20036.
Articles & Publications by William E. Odom
Viewing records 1 - 13 of 13
* Intelligence Community No Better than Its Policymakers 08/03/2004
* Retreating in Good Order 07/23/2004
* Fixing Intelligence Book Discussion as seen on C-Span 05/29/2003
* General Odom's Bibliography of Published Articles 05/23/2002
* Realism About Russia 04/26/2002
* TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE 04/17/2002
* Macedonia Crisis Shows Need for NATO Expansion 06/25/2001
* Buchanan Has It Backwards on Globalization 08/23/2000
* A Disaster Puts Putin in a Bind 08/23/2000
* 21st Century Directions in American Foreign Policy 04/01/2000
* Russia's Next Blunder 10/29/1999
* Losing Our Russian Illusions 11/01/1998
* Ratifying NATO Enlargement: Borah Versus Vandenberg 04/01/1998
Contact William E. Odom.
info@hudsondc.org
http://www.hudson.org/learn/index.cfm?fuseaction=staff_bio&eid=OdomWill
============================
Retired general: Iraq invasion was 'strategic disaster'
William Odom, a Vietnam veteran, said the invasion of Iraq alienated America's
... in US history,” said Odom, now a scholar with the Hudson Institute. ...
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10488.htm
Try searching for General William Odom + Hudson on Google Book Search
