Nuclear Proliferation—Options In A Perfect Storm
Mon Nov 6, 2006 22:27


Nuclear Proliferation—Options In A Perfect Storm
David J. Jonsson

November 4, 2006


In my article of August 7, 2006: The Origins of the Next Great War are Visible, I said, “With every passing year following the events of 9/11 the rise of Leftist/Marxist-Islamist Alliance has increased global instability. By the beginning of 2006, nearly all the combustible ingredients–far bigger in scale than those leading to World Wars 1 and 11 and the Gulf Wars of 1991 or 2003–were in place.” The question remains as to whether we face a Nuclear Holocaust or an Economic Holocaust as I described in my paper, Structural Changes–Destruction Of The U.S. Dollar.

“A nuclear Iran means, at the very least, a realignment of power dynamics in the Persian Gulf. It could potentially mean much more: a historic shift in the position of the long-subordinated Shiite minority relative to the power and prestige of the Sunni majority, which traditionally dominated the Muslim world. Many Arab Sunnis fear that the moment is ripe for a Shiite rise. Iraq’s Shiite majority has been asserting the right to govern, and the lesson has not been lost on the Shiite majority in Bahrain and the large minorities in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah of Jordan has warned of a “Shiite crescent” of power stretching from Iran to Lebanon via Iraq and (by proxy) Syria.” See also: Caliphatism - Establishing the “Islamic Kingdom of God on Earth“

Today in fact, things appear to be heating up in Mideast. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) Carrier Strike Group (IKE CSG) entered the Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, after transiting the Suez Canal Oct. 30, on a deployment in support of maritime security operations (MSO). The Enterprise group was relieved by the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which departed Norfolk, Va., on Oct. 3 and transited the Suez Canal on Oct. 30. The two carriers steamed side-by-side in the Red Sea on Oct. 31.

It is important to recognize that the Islamists, Russia or China controls all oil transit choke points. Over 40 million barrels per day of oil moves by tanker, in may cases through . Bab el-Mandab--Djibouti/Eritrea/Yemen; connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. 3 million-bbl/d flows through this choke point. Suez/Sumed-- Egypt; connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea. Oil Flows (2004E): 3.8 million bbl/d northbound, and 0.4 million bbl/d southbound. Northbound shipments consisted of 2.5 million bbl/d of crude oil via the Sumed Pipeline (nearly all of which came from Saudi Arabia), 0.8 million bbl/d of crude oil via the Suez Canal, and 0.5 million bbl/d of petroleum products via the Suez Canal. Southbound oil flows through the Suez Canal totaled 0.3 million bbl/d of petroleum products, and 0.1 million bbl/d of crude oil.

Somali Islamists fired test rockets on November 3, 2006 and prepared for war with the government as the United States warned of possible suicide attacks against neighboring countries. "The onus is on us to start the fight. We will be the first to strike," one senior Islamist commander, Maalim Hashi Ahmed, told Reuters by telephone.

Washington accuses the Islamists of harboring al Qaeda militants and has asked for them to be handed over.

The U.S. warning came amid growing fears of a regional war after the Islamists and government failed to meet face-to-face during three days of talks in Sudan. The negotiations were postponed on Wednesday with mediators urging both sides to exercise maximum restraint.



David J. Jonsson is the author of Clash of Ideologies —The Making of the Christian and Islamic Worlds, Xulon Press 2005. His new book: Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad: The Muslim Brotherhood to the Leftist/Marxist - Islamist Alliance (Salem Communications (May 30, 2006). He received his undergraduate and graduate degrees in physics. He worked for major corporations in the United States and Japan and with multilateral agencies that brought him to more that fifteen countries with significant or majority populations who are Muslim. These exposures provided insight into the basic tenants of Islam as a political, economic and religious system. He became proficient in Islamic law (Shariah) through contract negotiation and personal encounter. David can be reached at:


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