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Gas Prices, Global Peak Oil
Tue Oct 11, 2005 11:54
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Oil, Energy, Transportation. It's all going to change.

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ENERGY RELATED CHANGES WE WILL SEE
Alternative energy sources like coal and coal liquefaction, solar, wind, plant-based oil, hydroelectric, nuclear and natural gas will fall short of compensating for the shortages of oil and its power/mass ratio, driving the price of energy up. The price of just about everything else will rise with it. There won't be enough time to convert to the next major energy source or sources (Coal will have to be a major contributor) before the effects of global peak oil arrives. The high price of oil will seriously impact the ability of society to shift to different types of energy. Keep in mind Peak Natural Gas is coming after Global Peak Oil.

People will make less trips, plan trips better, drive less and carpool. They will live closer to where they work. Smaller cars such as the Mini Cooper, will be in demand as will electric cars and hybrid cars. You will have a hard time selling a large SUV. People will vacation closer to home or at home changing the travel industry. The cities of this nation will finally synchronize their traffic lights. America will standardize its gasoline. Washington will mandate higher mileage vehicles. There will be gas, diesel and solar panel thieves. Expect wild price oscillations. Energy Trader will be a derogatory term.

There will be more use of mass transit by low income people, students and the elderly. City buses, car and van pooling, Inter-city trains and buses and corporate worker transport will all be more important. Systems will have to be upgraded. Energy and health conscious Americans will give up their cars and use mass transit, pedal, electric and solar bicycles and tricycles. At a time when more Americans will need assistance charities will see a decrease in donations as more of the household dollar goes to rising overall costs due to rising gas prices.

More people will rent out rooms to help cover expenses and there will be more people to rent them. More people will live without air conditioning. In poor areas there will be more deaths from heat in the summer and more deaths from cold in the winter. Poor people will throw rocks at Hummers and other gas guzzlers that wander into the wrong neighborhoods. The neighborhoods where there aren't any cars anymore. Illegal immigration will increase particularly from Mexico where 40% of the people live in poverty now. Demagogues on the left will call for a "forced" green America and on the right some will call for military control of all Mid-East Oil. They will attract a larger audience with cries for simple solutions to complex problems. There could be an upsurge in domestic political violence and environmental guerilla war as radicals in the environmental left wage a struggle against the consumer society.

There will be electric/other vehicle lanes on highways and eventually the Interstates for vehicles with alternate energy sources, hydrogen, biomass perhaps even solar some day. With less and slower driving due to high gas prices accidents will go down. Highway construction budgets may decrease as people shift to mass transit and electric vehicles. Three generation households, already the fastest growing type of household in the 19990's will increase as families cope with the effects of Global Peak Oil. One third of single parents now live with relatives or friends. Rural areas near to cities will be connected by mass transit, regional markets will be more important. Second-hand stores will do a booming business.

Recycling will become a priority as oil and gas prices drive up the cost of extracting and transporting raw materials. Taxes may go up. Government will encourage energy savings with tax breaks. Airlines will go through consolidation as business models are tested by rising prices. Pensions will be reduced or discontinued by many companies pulling the rug out from under retirees and causing hardship for an aging/disabled population.

Greed must be factored into the gas prices/economy scenario. Remember a few years ago when the utility wholesalers price-raped their customers and the consumer and created rolling blackouts out west? More of the same. Politics will continue as usual and will add to the problem.

Chronic heating oil shortages may cause a greater migration to the Sun Belt. Prisons will cut heating and cooling adding to control problems. Many of the 85,000 ships on the waterways and seas worldwide may use modern sails as an auxiliary source of power to cut fuel costs. Automated highways will come into being with the cars being guided by computers that take over on certain highways with magnets in the road bed for guidance.

The middle class may shrink with more people sinking into poverty as the ripples of Global Peak Oil and later Global Peak Gas flow through the economy. The rich will be a little less rich and the poor, as the price of food and manufactured goods rises, will be severely stressed. There will be more homelessness. There could be rolling blackouts and gasoline shortages. There will be more fuel riots. There could be a 5% or greater reduction in voltage to homes and possibly businesses. Park and Ride will become more prevalent in the suburbs. Eventually cities along rail lines may experience growth as more people switch to mass transit.

Later, as we go down the back side of the slope, government rationing may be imposed. Some third world countries could become destabilized as their poor get even poorer. There could be a decline in International trade, tariff wars, a severe recession or even a depression. Energy prices will force change and it could be some time before we find the right combination of energy sources for our future.

It is way past time for us to move on this both individually and as a nation. There is going to be considerable pain. Begin planning now with Global Peak Oil in mind. Planning can make all the difference in your world and your future. Become energy conscious. If you are going to build a home it is the most important thing you can do. Energy saved in basic construction design will save you dollars each and every month as long as you live in the house and will be a fantastic selling point when the cost of heating and cooling a house has doubled. Which it will. Think about what you will be driving when gas is $7.00 a gallon. Buy it now. You will see that price in a few years. Get ready now !!
 

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