Oil, Energy, Transportation. It's all going to change.
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ENERGY RELATED CHANGES WE WILL SEE
Alternative energy sources like coal and coal liquefaction,
solar, wind, plant-based oil, hydroelectric, nuclear and natural
gas will fall short of compensating for the shortages of oil and
its power/mass ratio, driving the price of energy up. The price
of just about everything else will rise with it. There won't be
enough time to convert to the next major energy source or
sources (Coal will have to be a major contributor) before the
effects of global peak oil arrives. The high price of oil will
seriously impact the ability of society to shift to different
types of energy. Keep in mind Peak Natural Gas is coming after
Global Peak Oil.
People will make less trips, plan trips better, drive less and
carpool. They will live closer to where they work. Smaller cars
such as the Mini Cooper, will be in demand as will electric cars
and hybrid cars. You will have a hard time selling a large SUV.
People will vacation closer to home or at home changing the
travel industry. The cities of this nation will finally
synchronize their traffic lights. America will standardize its
gasoline. Washington will mandate higher mileage vehicles. There
will be gas, diesel and solar panel thieves. Expect wild price
oscillations. Energy Trader will be a derogatory term.
There will be more use of mass transit by low income people,
students and the elderly. City buses, car and van pooling,
Inter-city trains and buses and corporate worker transport will
all be more important. Systems will have to be upgraded. Energy
and health conscious Americans will give up their cars and use
mass transit, pedal, electric and solar bicycles and tricycles.
At a time when more Americans will need assistance charities
will see a decrease in donations as more of the household dollar
goes to rising overall costs due to rising gas prices.
More people will rent out rooms to help cover expenses and there
will be more people to rent them. More people will live without
air conditioning. In poor areas there will be more deaths from
heat in the summer and more deaths from cold in the winter. Poor
people will throw rocks at Hummers and other gas guzzlers that
wander into the wrong neighborhoods. The neighborhoods where
there aren't any cars anymore. Illegal immigration will increase
particularly from Mexico where 40% of the people live in poverty
now. Demagogues on the left will call for a "forced" green
America and on the right some will call for military control of
all Mid-East Oil. They will attract a larger audience with cries
for simple solutions to complex problems. There could be an
upsurge in domestic political violence and environmental
guerilla war as radicals in the environmental left wage a
struggle against the consumer society.
There will be electric/other vehicle lanes on highways and
eventually the Interstates for vehicles with alternate energy
sources, hydrogen, biomass perhaps even solar some day. With
less and slower driving due to high gas prices accidents will go
down. Highway construction budgets may decrease as people shift
to mass transit and electric vehicles. Three generation
households, already the fastest growing type of household in the
19990's will increase as families cope with the effects of
Global Peak Oil. One third of single parents now live with
relatives or friends. Rural areas near to cities will be
connected by mass transit, regional markets will be more
important. Second-hand stores will do a booming business.
Recycling will become a priority as oil and gas prices drive up
the cost of extracting and transporting raw materials. Taxes may
go up. Government will encourage energy savings with tax breaks.
Airlines will go through consolidation as business models are
tested by rising prices. Pensions will be reduced or
discontinued by many companies pulling the rug out from under
retirees and causing hardship for an aging/disabled population.
Greed must be factored into the gas prices/economy scenario.
Remember a few years ago when the utility wholesalers
price-raped their customers and the consumer and created rolling
blackouts out west? More of the same. Politics will continue as
usual and will add to the problem.
Chronic heating oil shortages may cause a greater migration to
the Sun Belt. Prisons will cut heating and cooling adding to
control problems. Many of the 85,000 ships on the waterways and
seas worldwide may use modern sails as an auxiliary source of
power to cut fuel costs. Automated highways will come into being
with the cars being guided by computers that take over on
certain highways with magnets in the road bed for guidance.
The middle class may shrink with more people sinking into
poverty as the ripples of Global Peak Oil and later Global Peak
Gas flow through the economy. The rich will be a little less
rich and the poor, as the price of food and manufactured goods
rises, will be severely stressed. There will be more
homelessness. There could be rolling blackouts and gasoline
shortages. There will be more fuel riots. There could be a 5% or
greater reduction in voltage to homes and possibly businesses.
Park and Ride will become more prevalent in the suburbs.
Eventually cities along rail lines may experience growth as more
people switch to mass transit.
Later, as we go down the back side of the slope, government
rationing may be imposed. Some third world countries could
become destabilized as their poor get even poorer. There could
be a decline in International trade, tariff wars, a severe
recession or even a depression. Energy prices will force change
and it could be some time before we find the right combination
of energy sources for our future.
It is way past time for us to move on this both individually and
as a nation. There is going to be considerable pain. Begin
planning now with Global Peak Oil in mind. Planning can make all
the difference in your world and your future. Become energy
conscious. If you are going to build a home it is the most
important thing you can do. Energy saved in basic construction
design will save you dollars each and every month as long as you
live in the house and will be a fantastic selling point when the
cost of heating and cooling a house has doubled. Which it will.
Think about what you will be driving when gas is $7.00 a gallon.
Buy it now. You will see that price in a few years. Get ready
now !!