Military use considered in a deadly flu pandemic

avintel@netzero.com
Military use considered in a deadly flu pandemic
Wed Oct 5, 2005 20:17
64.140.158.22

Outbreak (1995)

This published in today's San Diego Union-Tribune. Remember the movie
OUTBREAK with Dustin Hoffman?

Darren

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051005/news_1n5flu.html

Military use considered in a deadly flu pandemic

By Ron Hutcheson
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE

October 5, 2005

WASHINGTON - Raising fears of a deadly flu pandemic, President Bush said
yesterday that he is considering using the military to impose a
quarantine in an outbreak.

Bush, in response to a question at a news conference, echoed warnings
from health experts who fear a replay of the 1918 pandemic that killed
an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

The World Health Organization says that an influenza pandemic is "just a
matter of time." Health officials are concerned about avian flu because
it seems to be extremely lethal when it jumps from birds to humans.

Of the 116 known cases in humans since 2003, 60 have ended in death.
There are no confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission, but that
could change because influenza viruses constantly mutate.

"It's not a question of if, it's a question of when. It's scary," said
Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, who has urged the administration to take a more
aggressive approach. "If that pandemic hit next month, we'd be in a
world of hurt."

Bush, citing concern that state and local authorities might be unable to
contain and deal with such an outbreak, asked lawmakers to give him the
authority to call in the military.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Bush has called on Congress to
consider giving the armed forces the lead responsibility for conducting
search-and-rescue operations and sending in supplies after massive
natural disasters and terrorist attacks.

Doing so could require a change in law, and even some in the Pentagon
are skeptical of the notion.

Bush, however, left no doubt that he takes the threat seriously.

"I am concerned about avian flu. ... I've thought through all the
scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean," Bush said. "I'm not
predicting an outbreak. I'm just suggesting to you that we'd better be
thinking about it."

White House officials said Bush's fears were heightened last summer when
he read "The Great Influenza," a nightmarish account of the 1918
pandemic written by John Barry. In that outbreak, a virus left a trail
of death across the globe. Most of the victims developed an extremely
virulent form of pneumonia.

Unlike a typical flu outbreak, the 1918 pandemic struck hardest against
people in the prime of life.

Packed hospitals turned away patients and left many of those who were
admitted without treatment. Morgues ran out of caskets. Schools,
government buildings and churches closed in a desperate and futile
attempt to stop the spread of the disease.

If it happens again, experts say, the death toll and economic
devastation could far surpass the damage from Hurricane Katrina. And
some fear that the government's response could be equally inadequate.

"The entire world has a long way to go to achieve even the most
fundamental levels of preparedness," said Michael Osterholm, director of
the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. "We're going to
need every possible asset within all of government - federal, state and
local - to respond to a pandemic."

Bush said yesterday that he should have the authority to use federal
troops to seal off an infected region in a pandemic.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent
people from coming in to get exposed to avian flu," Bush said. "One
option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move."

However, many public health experts believe it is impossible to entirely
isolate neighborhoods, towns, cities or regions during an outbreak.

Instead, they say quarantines today generally refer to a variety of
strategies for identifying and limiting the movement of people who are
infected with a contagious pathogen or are at high risk.

That might include screening travelers for fever and flu symptoms;
prohibiting large gatherings of people, including at some workplaces;
and requiring that people exposed to infected individuals stay at home
until the incubation period for the illness has passed.

China took these measures during the outbreak of severe acute
respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003.

Bush said he is encouraging work on a new vaccine against the flu. No
such vaccine exists, and developing one is difficult before a
human-to-human virus emerges.

He said he used his visit to the United Nations last month to "talk to
as many leaders as I could find" about the need to report any outbreaks
as quickly as possible.

All of the known human cases of avian flu have occurred in Asia.

"Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and
keep it isolated in the region in which it begins. . . . We're watching
it very carefully," Bush said.

He did not mention the cost of preparing for an outbreak, but health
officials and members of Congress say it easily could cost billions of
dollars to stockpile vaccines, anti-viral drugs and other supplies.

The Senate approved an amendment last week that added $3.9 billion to a
defense spending bill for anti-viral drugs and other flu-related
expenses.

"That is like trying to fill Lake Superior with a garden hose. That's
just a start," Osterholm said.

Barry, who spent seven years on his book on the 1918 outbreak, said no
one can know how bad the next pandemic will be until a new virus
emerges. It could be a replay of 1918, or it could more closely resemble
the 1968 Hong Kong flu, which caused 750,000 deaths.

"We don't know whether it's going to be a 1968 virus or a 1918 virus,"
Barry said. "That's frightening, without a doubt. We need to take it
very, very, very, very seriously."

The Associated Press and Washington Post contributed to this report.