J. Kenneth Smail
Hidden Crisis: Reducing Human Numbers by 80%
Fri Feb 13 00:06:03 2004
64.140.159.156

Confronting The 21st Century's Hidden Crisis:
Reducing Human Numbers by 80%
by J. Kenneth Smail
May 1995
http://www.npg.org/forum_series/confronting.htm

[snip]

The problem of establishing rational and defensible population "optimums" deserves further comment. Perhaps most surprising is how unusual it is to find individuals - or organizations - who are willing to state publicly and emphatically that just reaching a point of "population stability" during the next century will not be enough, either to solve our near-term demographic difficulties or to stave off a future demographic catastrophe. For the latter scenario will almost surely come to pass if humanity naively and/or unquestioningly accepts global population levels that are set so high - in the 10 to 15 billion range - that they are clearly unsustainable over the longer term. One only has to consider the stresses already evident at the current level of nearly six billion to recognize that any sort of long-term stability at figures double that number will be impossible to accomplish. Put most simply, there seems to be no credible alternative to the premise that a very significant population reduction must necessarily follow population stabilization.

Admittedly, the above-mentioned global goal - a sustainable optimum of approximately 2 billion people by the beginning of the 23rd century - has a substantial inferential component. This. "subjectivity" is undoubtedly due to a number of factors, among which might be included: 1) the fact that as yet only a modest amount of empirical scientific research has been directed toward establishing quantifiable (and testable) parameters for what the earth's long-term carrying capacity might actually be; 2) the strong likelihood that the sheer complexity, multidisciplinary nature and sociopolitical "sensitivities" surrounding analysis of the population problem have not only inhibited scientific research and funding but have also elicited (in some) a sort of "scale paralysis"; 3) the obvious fact that the process involved in initially establishing - and subsequently implementing - future population goals will involve complex "qualitative considerations" that significantly transcend a strictly scientific (quantitative) analysis; 4) the presence of a persistent (and probably deep-seated) human "reticence" to give serious consideration to a demographic future that seems quite remote from one's daily life and activities, not to mention a future for which there is little historical precedent; and 5) the distinct possibility that, even with the best of political intentions and unprecedented cooperation at all relevant levels, it may take considerably longer than 200 years to reach the desired demographic goals.

Notwithstanding these and other uncertainties, the two billion "global optimum" utilized here is quite consistent with estimates to be found in several of the sources listed at the end of this essay (see particularly the articles in the volume edited by Grant, the books by Hardin and the Ehrlichs, and various publications and position papers prepared by NPG). Actually, this two billion estimate may be somewhat on the generous side, particularly in light of the fact that some recent projections for the earth's long-term carrying capacity have been set much lower, in the one-half to one billion range (David Pimentel: pers. com.).

On the other hand, even if future research shows that this global carrying capacity figure has been underestimated by at least l/2 - that is, if further analysis demonstrates that an optimum population estimate of two billion is "off-target" by a factor of two or more - the argument put forth here loses little if any of its validity or persuasive power. For example, if it is indeed inevitable that global population size is destined to reach 10 to 12 billion within the next half-century, even efforts to reach a somewhat "larger" optimum population - one (say) in the four to five billion range-would still require a very significant decrease in human numbers, roughly on the order of 60%. From a practical standpoint, this figure differs little from the 80% reduction postulated earlier; certainly, either of these "projections" is more than adequate to dramatize the need for a profound - and immediate - response to this looming demographic crisis.

Future Prospects

I am cautiously optimistic that this crisis can be averted, if only because all humans - despite our many differences - share a deep-rooted "investment in immortality", an individual and collective concern for posterity. This powerful commitment to the future manifests itself biologically (through the children we beget), socioculturally (through our relationships with others) and morally (through our religious and/or ethical systems). As an essential first step, our species will soon have to establish a difficult but very necessary balance between individual reproductive rights and collective reproductive responsibilities. That is, all of the world's peoples must come fully to terms with the fact that a person's (biological) right to have children must be mediated by his or her (social) responsibility not to have too many. Certainly, any hope for success in this massive reorientation of basic biological propensities and strongly-held sociocultural expectations will require attention not only to quantitative but also to qualitative issues and concerns. In fact, it will likely be easier to elicit broad-scale agreement on the pressing need for a significant reduction in human numbers - the "quantitative dimension" - than it will be to foster a broad scale consensus on the "qualitative" restructuring of individual, political, economic, social and ethical perceptions that will also be necessary.

In pragmatic terms, the initial stabilization and subsequent 80% reduction in human numbers suggested earlier could be brought about with relative ease by establishing a worldwide average fertility rate of approximately 1.5 to 1.7 over the next several generations (lasting throughout the 21st century at least). Essentially, all that would be necessary is for couples to "stop at two"; because some women have no children, and others only one, this would rather quickly result in an overall (sub-replacement) fertility rate in the desired range. It is important to note that rates approaching this 1.5 to 1.7 level have already been reached in a number of nation-states (including the U.S.), at least for limited periods of time, and further that these fertility levels have in most instances been attained voluntarily (without external coercion).

Certainly an important early step in this process of population reduction would be to promote appropriate (i.e. culturally acceptable) local incentives to significantly postpone age at marriage and/or age at first pregnancy, from (say) the mid/late teens until at least the mid-20's. If these same incentives also encouraged increased intervals between births, the almost certain consequence would be markedly smaller family sizes coupled with a significant decrease in the number of generations per unit time (from nearly six generations per century to fewer than four). Once an optimum population size is within reach - perhaps toward the end of the 22nd century when global numbers begin to come into balance with carrying capacity as then understood - fertility rates could then be increased to the previously mentioned ZPG replacement level (ca. 2.1). However, it is also abundantly clear, to judge by the agenda and controversies emanating from the recent (September 1994) United Nations-sponsored International Conference on Population and Development, that implementation of these greatly reduced fertility rates is inextricably intertwined with a number of very sensitive political and ideological concerns. Chief among these are matters pertaining to: the enhancement of gender equity; the educational and economic empowerment of women; ongoing controversies surrounding family planning, birth control and abortion; problems of development and modernization; differential access to resources and/or inequities in their distribution; various forms of pollution and environmental degradation; endemic poverty and implementation of effective public health measures; the growth of nationalism and ethnic/religious tensions; human migration and political/ecological refugees; etc.; etc. These are all very important issues, and there is little doubt that they are frequently interconnected in complex cause-and-effect relationships with population growth.

However, it is even more important not to confuse short-term means with longer-term ends. More specifically, it is essential that humanity does not lose sight of the over-arching and exploding demographic "forest" in the midst of legitimate and deeply-felt concerns about particular political/ideological "trees".

FULL STORY HERE:
http://www.npg.org/forum_series/confronting.htm