Blair-Bush Deal before Iraq War Revealed in Secret Memo
By Richard Norton-Taylor
The Guardian UK
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/iraq/story/0,,1700881,00.html
Friday 03 February 2006
PM promised to be 'solidly behind' US invasion with or
without UN backing.
Tony Blair told President George Bush that he was "solidly"
behind US plans to invade Iraq before he sought advice about
the invasion's legality and despite the absence of a second
UN resolution, according to a new account of the build-up to
the war published today.
A memo of a two-hour meeting between the two leaders at the
White House on January 31 2003 - nearly two months before
the invasion - reveals that Mr. Bush made it clear the US
intended to invade whether or not there was a second UN
resolution and even if UN inspectors found no evidence of a
banned Iraqi weapons program.
"The diplomatic strategy had to be arranged around the
military planning", the president told Mr. Blair. The prime
minister is said to have raised no objection. He is quoted
as saying he was "solidly with the president and ready to do
whatever it took to disarm Saddam".
The disclosures come in a new edition of Lawless World, by
Phillipe Sands, a QC and professor of international law at
University College, London. Professor Sands last year
exposed the doubts shared by Foreign Office lawyers about
the legality of the invasion in disclosures which eventually
forced the prime minister to publish the full legal advice
given to him by the attorney general, Lord Goldsmith.
The memo seen by Prof Sands reveals:
* Mr. Bush told Mr. Blair that the US was so worried about
the failure to find hard evidence against Saddam that it
thought of "flying U2 reconnaissance aircraft planes with
fighter cover over Iraq, painted in UN colors". Mr. Bush
added: "If Saddam fired on them, he would be in breach [of
UN resolutions]".
* Mr. Bush even expressed the hope that a defector would be
extracted from Iraq and give a "public presentation about
Saddam's WMD". He is also said to have referred Mr. Blair to
a "small possibility" that Saddam would be "assassinated".
* Mr. Blair told the US president that a second UN
resolution would be an "insurance policy", providing
"international cover, including with the Arabs" if anything
went wrong with the military campaign, or if Saddam
increased the stakes by burning oil wells, killing children,
or fomenting internal divisions within Iraq.
* Mr. Bush told the prime minister that he "thought it
unlikely that there would be internecine warfare between the
different religious and ethnic groups". Mr. Blair did not
demur, according to the book.
The revelation that Mr. Blair had supported the US
president's plans to go to war with Iraq even in the absence
of a second UN resolution contrasts with the assurances the
prime minister gave parliament shortly after. On February 25
2003 - three weeks after his trip to Washington - Mr. Blair
told the Commons that the government was giving "Saddam one
further, final chance to disarm voluntarily".
He added: "Even now, today, we are offering Saddam the
prospect of voluntary disarmament through the UN. I detest
his regime - I hope most people do - but even now, he could
save it by complying with the UN's demand. Even now, we are
prepared to go the extra step to achieve disarmament
peacefully."
On March 18, before the crucial vote on the war, he told
MPs: "The UN should be the focus both of diplomacy and of
action... [and that not to take military action] would do
more damage in the long term to the UN than any other single
course that we could pursue."
The meeting between Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair, attended by six
close aides, came at a time of growing concern about the
failure of any hard intelligence to back up claims that
Saddam was producing weapons of mass destruction in breach
of UN disarmament obligations. It took place a few days
before the then US secretary Colin Powell made claims -
since discredited - in a dramatic presentation at the UN
about Iraq's weapons program.
Earlier in January 2003, Jack Straw, the foreign secretary,
expressed his private concerns about the absence of a
smoking gun in a private note to Mr. Blair, according to the
book. He said he hoped that the UN's chief weapons
inspector, Hans Blix, would come up with enough evidence to
report a breach by Iraq of is its UN obligations.
Downing Street did not deny the existence of the memo last
night, but said: "The prime minister only committed UK
forces to Iraq after securing the approval of the House of
Commons in a vote on March 18, 2003." It added the decision
to resort to military action to ensure Iraq fulfilled its
obligations imposed by successive Security Council
resolutions was taken only after attempts to disarm Iraq had
failed. "Of course during this time there were frequent
discussions between the UK and US governments about Iraq. We
do not comment on the prime minister's conversations with
other leaders."
Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat acting leader,
said last night: "The fact that consideration was apparently
given to using American military aircraft in UN colors in
the hope of provoking Saddam Hussein is a graphic
illustration of the rush to war. It would also appear to be
the case that the diplomatic efforts in New York after the
meeting of January 31 were simply going through the motions.
"The prime minister's offer of February 25 to Saddam Hussein
was about as empty as it could get. He has a lot of
explaining to do."
Prof Sands says Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Britain's UN
ambassador at the time, told a foreign colleague he was
"clearly uncomfortable" about the failure to get a second
resolution. Foreign Office lawyers consistently warned that
an invasion would be regarded as unlawful. The book reveals
that Elizabeth Wilmshurst, the FO's deputy chief legal
adviser who resigned over the war, told the Butler inquiry
into the use of intelligence during the run-up to the war,
of her belief that Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general,
shared the FO view. According to private evidence to the
Butler inquiry, Lord Goldsmith told FO lawyers in early
2003: "The prime minister has told me that I cannot give
advice, but you know what my views are".
On March 7 2003 he advised the prime minister that the Bush
administration believed that a case could be made for an
invasion without a second UN resolution. But he warned that
Britain could be challenged in the international criminal
court. Ten days later, he said a second resolution was not
necessary.
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