CREATORS SYNDICATE

Is Mr. Bush Doomed?

Sat Jan 31 17:12:21 2004
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Is Mr. Bush Doomed?

© 2004 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC., February 2, 2004 •
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AMERICAN FREE PRESS 17

Fear must be coursing through President Bush’s veins as he realizes the Iraqi trap in which the neocons have placed him. Bush is caught between anIraqi civil war and a wider insurgency.

Desperate to extricate himself from the weekly carnage well before the November election, Bush can neither deliver on his promise of democracy via direct elections norimpose his plan for an Iraqi assembly elected indirectly by caucuses.

If Bush delivers on his democracy promise, the Shiites, with 60 percent of the population, will elect Shiite candidates, outraging the Sunnis, and civil war will break out. If he tries to water down Shiite representation with his plan for an assembly elected indirectly by caucuses, the so-farpeaceful Shiites are likely to join the violence.

If the Shiites become violent, the insurgency would be too large to be contained by our present occupying force.

Moreover, the outbreak of a general rebellion in Iraq could spill over throughout the Middle East, where unpopular secular rulers are sitting on a smoldering Islam. The U.S. government’s puppet in Pakistan would likely bite the dust. Israel would then face countervailing Muslim nukes.

If you think more U.S. troops are needed now in Iraq, imagine how many more would be required to deal with a wider conflagration. Where would they come from? The U.S. military is already so thinly stretched that soon 40 percent of the occupying troops would be drawn from the National Guard and reservists, resulting in tremendous disruption in the affairs of tens of thousands of families.

Pilots and troops are shunning the cash bonuses offered for re-enlistments. The troops recognize a quagmire even if their neo-con overlords cannot. The onlysource of troops is the draft.

A Shiite insurgency that brought back the draft would deprive Bush of re-election. A civil war with the prospect of a Kurdish state would bring in the Turks. On Jan. 14, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan said that Turkey will intervene in the event of Iraq’s disintegration.

The Shiites and the Turks are forming an alliance, as both have the same interest in maintaining the geographical integrity of the Iraqi state. The United States could come dangerously close to military conflict with a NATO ally.

All of this was perfectly clear well in advance of the illconsidered invasion. If Bush wasn’t smart enough to see it, why didn’t his national security advisor or his secretary of state? How did a handful of neo-con ideologues hijack

U.S. foreign policy?

Bush did not campaign on a neo-con policy of conquest in the Middle East. There was no public debate over this policy. The invasion of Iraq was the private agenda of the neo-cons.

Why have the neo-cons not been held responsible for their treason in abusing their presidential appointments to substitute their personal agenda for America’s agenda?

Bush has been the neo-cons’ puppet for so long that he is now stuck with responsibility for their horrible mistake.

With no way of his own to get out of his trap, his arrogance toward the "irrelevant" UN and our doubting allies has disappeared. Come bail me out, he pleads.

Bush, desperate to be extricated before doom strikes him, is experiencing a reality totally different from the chest-thumping of neo-con megalomaniacs, such as Charles Krauthammer, who declared the United States so powerful as to be able to "reshape, indeed remake, reality on its own."

Bush now knows that he lacks the power to deal with the reality of Iraq. Indeed, Bush cannot even deal with his own appointees.

COMMENTARY BY PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

Opinion



‘Bush Coalition’ in Iraq:

1. United States: 130,000

2. Britain: 10,620

3. Italy: 3,000

4. Poland: 2,350

5. Ukraine: 1,650

6. Spain: 1,254

7. Netherlands: 1,100

8. Australia: 800

9. Slovakia: 800

10. Romania: 700

11. Bulgaria: 500

12. Thailand: 443

13. Denmark: 420

14. Czech Republic: 400

15. Honduras: 368

16. El Salvador: 361

17. Dominican Republic: 302

18. Norway: 179

19. Mongolia: 160

20. Azerbaijan: 150

21. Hungary: 140

22. Portugal: 120

23. Nicaragua: 113

24. Latvia: 100

25. Philippines: 80

26. Albania: 70

27. Georgia: 70

28. New Zealand: 61

29. Croatia: 60

30. Lithuania: 50

31. Moldova: 50

32. Estonia: 43

33. Macedonia: 37

34. Kazakhstan: 25

Total: 156,576 SOURCE: AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE

‘Bush Coalition’ in Iraq:

• Kick em all out ! — anonymous, Sat Jan 31 21:17
• BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH BLAH — Anonymous, Sat Jan 31 20:17