Anonymous
Life After The Oil Crash
Fri Jan 9 09:40:50 2004
67.1.155.135

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Life After The Oil Crash
Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global “Peak Oil” and related geo-political events.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "the situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question."

If you are like 99% of the people reading this letter, you have never heard of the term "Peak Oil". I had not heard the term until a few months ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I have had my worldview, and basic assumptions about my own individual future turned completely upside down.

A little about myself: A few months ago, I was a 25 year old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the "American Dream".



Peak Oil has caused me to seriously question how realistic this vision of my life is.



Whether your'e 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you are about to read will shake the foundations of your life.



Below you find a brief explanation of Peak Oil, its ramifications, and what we can do about it. For the sake of simplicity, I have designed the following explanation for somebody unfamiliar with Peak Oil. I have also left out the citations - although everything has come from the extremely thorough articles and interviews linked to on this site.





What is "Peak Oil"?



All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.



For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve. The peak will last for a year or so, at which time we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.







When will Peak Oil occur?



The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks. Generally, these estimates come from the government.



A more realistic estimate is between the year 2004-2010. Unfortunately, we won't know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year. It is possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since.



The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance in an article entitled “A Revolutionary Transformation,” the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: "By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today".







That sounds pretty bad, but I don't drive an SUV or anything. Even if gas prices get high, I could probably still make ends meet. Why should I be concerned?



Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.



Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.



Oil based agriculture has been fantastic for food production. Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors and food storage and transport systems such as refrigerators and trucks. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the birth rate. As the birth rate went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.



Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so. Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically.



When Peak Oil occurs, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar. Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage.



Oil is also required for nearly every consumer item, water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defense.



Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.





This is known as the post-oil "die-off". The term "die-off" captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep. For a humorous portrayal of the die-off, read chapter 3 of Michael Moore's most recent book, "Dude, Where's My Country?"





What do you mean by "Die-Off"?



Exactly what it sounds like. It is estimated that the world's population will contract to 500 million during the Oil Crash. (current world population: 6 billion)





What are my chances of surviving the "Die-Off"?



If you ignore the warnings, and don't prepare, you have absolutely no chance of surviving.



If you pay attention, and start preparing, you have very little chance of surviving.



We all may as well accept were going to die during the crash. However, if enough of us prepare, then at least a few should make it and humanity will rise once again.



What About Alternatives like Solar, Wind, Hydrogen etc?



Unfortunately, it is too late. It would take us a minimum of 50 years to develop a food delivery infrastructure based on alternative energies. Peak Oil is going to occur within five. Even if we stopped all wars, and committed ourselves entirely to energy alternatives such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc, the best we can hope for is to soften the fall.



Oil accounts for 40% of our current global energy supply. There are no alternatives to oil that can supply this much energy, let alont the amount of energy we require to feed a wolrdwide population that is increasing exponentially.



Let's briefly examine the commonly proposed oil alternatives:



Natural Gas:



Natural Gas currently supplies 20% of global energy supply. Gas itself will start running out from 2020 on. Demand for natural gas in North America is already outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for existing jet aircraft, ships, vehicles, and equipment for agriculture and other products. Conversion consumes large amounts of energy as well as money. Natural gas also does not provide the huge array of chemical by-products that we depend on oil for.



Hydro-Electric:



Hydro-Electric power currently accounts for 2.3% of global energy supply, compared with the 40% provided. It is unsuitable for aircrafts and the present 800 million existing vehicles.



Solar



Solar power accounts for .006% of global energy supply. Energy varies constantly with weather or day/night. Not storable or portable energy like oil or natural gas so unsuited for present vehicles and industry. Batteries bulky, expensive, wear out in 5-10 years. Photovoltaic solar equipment (US$4/watt) is about 15% efficient, giving about 100 watts of the 1 kW per square metre exposed to bright sunshine (enough for one light bulb). A typical solar water panel array can deliver 50% to 85% of a home’s hot water though. Using some of our precious remaining crude oil as fuel for manufacturing solar equipment may be wise



Wind



Wind power accounts for .07% of global energy supply. As with solar, energy varies greatly with weather, and is not portable or storable like oil and gas.



Hydrogen



Hydrogen accounts for 0.01% of global energy. Hydrogen is currently manufactured from methane gas. It takes more energy to create it than the hydrogen actually provides. It is therefore an energy “carrier” not a source. Liquid hydrogen occupies four to eleven times the bulk of equivalent gasoline or diesel. Existing vehicles and aircraft and existing distribution systems are not suited to it. Solar hydrogen might be an option in some of the hot countries.



Nuclear



Nuclear is currently being abandoned globally). Its ability to soften the oil crash is very problematic due to accidents and terrorism. Many more reactors would be needed. Tons of radioactive materials to transport at risk to public. Nuclear waste disposal is still the major, unresolved problem, especially breeder reactors producing plutonium a nuclear weapon/terrorist raw material, half-life contamination is 24,000 years. All abandoned reactors are radioactive for decades or millennia. Nuclear is not directly suitable for aircraft and vehicles. Adapting nuclear to make hydrogen or other fuels would be a huge, and energy-expensive project. Nuclear fusion is still not available, after 40 years’ research and billions of dollars invested.





Is It Possible That We Have Already Hit Peak Oil and Are Now In the First Stages of the Oil Crash?



Yes. As stated above, we won't know we have hit the Peak until a few years after we hit it. Global oil production has dipped every year since 2000, so it is quite possible the Peak has passed.



Ample evidence exists that we are in the first stages of the Oil Crash. In the last year (2003), the cost of food has risen 16%-25%. Health care costs have risen 15%. Education costs have risen 20%. These are often excluded from measures of inflation because they are considered "volatile".



As of 12/03 the "adjusted" unemployment, which has been squeezed out of as much meaning as conceivably possible, still hovers in the 6% range. However, if you factor in the quality of employment, then the real numbers are closer to 12%-15%.



The rolling blackouts experienced in California during Fall 2000, the massive East Coast blackout of August, 2003 and the various other massive blackouts that occurred throughout the world during late summer of 2003 are further indicators that we are in the first stages of the Oil Crash.



If the year 2000 was the year of Peak Oil, it means we have very little time to prepare before things completely disintegrate.



Why Haven't I Heard About This On the News?



There are a couple of reasons:



1. 75% of the media (all newspapers, television and radio stations) are owned by 5 companies. Each of these companies is heavily invested in the energy industry. If they were to publicly announce the truth about Peak Oil, investment in the stock market would dry up, the economy would plunge, chaos would ensue, and the whole deck of cards would come crashing down before our leaders and corporate elite have a chance to secure their own well-being.



2. The ramifications of Peak Oil are so serious that it is hard for anybody, including journalists and politicians, to accept it.



3. The average American may not be emotionally prepared to deal with Peak Oil. Peak Oil is a literal death sentence to much of our population as well as a figurative death sentence to the energy intensive American way of life. When faced with such news, most people choose to "kill the messenger."




How Are the Energy Companies Dealing With This?



The major oil companies are merging and downsizing and outsourcing and not investing in new refineries because they know full well that production is set to decline and that the exploration opportunities are getting less and less.



The companies have to sing to the stock market, and merger hides the collapse of the weaker brethren. The staff is purged on merger and the combined budget ends up much less than the sum of the previous components. Besides, a lot of the executives and bankers make a lot of money from the merger. Since their making money off the situation, they are not going to go public with the truth.


Does This Have Anything To Do With the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?



George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and Donald Rumsfeld are all former executives for large oil companies. They have known about Peak Oil for decades.



In the context of Peak Oil, the wars in the Middle East are not wars of greed. Rather, they are wars for survival.



You can expect the U.S. to invade Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia within the next 2-5 years. As you watch the news, you can already notice the hints are being dropped. "Iran has WMD" or "Syria isn't cooperating in the war on terror" or "Saudi Arabia is funding terrorism". "The war on terror will last for decades." The stage is being set so that the American public will accept these future invasions.



What's going to happen when recently industrialized China decides it needs what little oil is left as bad as the United States does?



World War III

What about other "Westernized" countries like France? Don't they need oil also?


We will likely be inavding or attacking France at some point as well. Several high level officials in the Bush Administration are pushing for a plan to force nations to "choose between Paris and Washington."



Well at least we don't have to worry about Russia, right?


In October, President Putin called the US a "Rogue state" and reserved the right for a unilateral, first nuclear strike against the US. Reason: The US is not only monopolizing Russia's oil suppliers, they are also buying Russian oil companies.



War with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, China, and France and Russia? Won't that require a reinstitution of the draft?



George Bush recently approved a massive increase for the Selective Service's 2005 budget. The Selective Service is currently undergoing a massive overhaul and has been told it needs to be ready to report to the president in June, 2005. This means you can expect a reinstitution of the military draft some time thereafter.



Essentially, every young man currently between the ages of 12 - 22 has been earmarked as a solider for future oil wars.

I think I'm going to be sick. . .


I know the feeling.



If we get Bush out of office, will that solve the problem?



Peak Oil is happening with or without Bush. In fact, you may have the Bush administration to thank for the couple extra years of cheap oil he is robbing from the Middle East. This gives us in the U.S. some extra time to prepare for the post-peak Oil Crash.



The President, his administration, and most of our legislators have been reduced to ceremonial figureheads for the energy and defense industries. These industries control both parties.



None of the presidential candidates except Dennis Kucinich have publicly mentioned Peak Oil even once.


In other words, regardless of who gets elected, were on our own.


Does Peak Oil have anything to do with legislation such as Patriot Act I, and Patriot Act II?


When food production plummets, the only way to control the population will be through the institution of a fascist style police state. The passage of the Patriot Acts are the foundation of that state.


What is the government doing to solve this problem?


It may come as no surprise to you that our leaders are doing more to exasperate the problem then they are to solve it. Rather then developing a reasonable plan for handling the coming Oil Crash,

• Who says we deserve to live anymore, anyway? — Rev. C.D. Thomson, Fri Jan 9 12:15