CIA report: Iraq turmoil predicted by agency

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: CIA on Iraq
Date: Thu, 13 Oct 2005 17:54:28 -0700
From: Darren [Avintel] avintel@netzero.com
Organization: AvIntel
To: 'THE GROUP' avintel@netzero.com

RE: http://www.coasttocoastam.com
Last night, George Noory on Coast-to-Coast AM, said that President
George W. Bush, in recent polls, has the lowest popularity rating in
history (not King Bush II's history, but presidential history!).

Of course, as the lies come out on Iraq, it should require legal removal
of the president, however those that get polled, probably care far less
about Iraq and this $7 billion per month (official reporting) adventure,
than they do a twenty cent jump in their per-gallon gasoline price.

Darren
==========================
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051013/news_1n13warning.html

CIA report: Iraq turmoil predicted by agency

White House was more interested in WMDs, paper says

By David Morgan
REUTERS

October 13, 2005

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration paid scant attention to prewar U.S.
intelligence on Iraq predicting the ethnic and tribal turmoil that now
threatens the future of the country, a newly released 2004 CIA report
said.

The report said U.S. policymakers instead concentrated more on the
agency's assessments of Iraq's weapons program, which helped them make
the case for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003 but which
turned out to be flawed and misleading.

"Intelligence assessments on post-Saddam issues were particularly
insightful," the report said.

But it added: "In an ironic twist, the policy community was receptive to
technical intelligence (the weapons program) where the analysis was
wrong, but apparently paid little attention to intelligence on cultural
and political issues (post-Saddam Iraq), where the analysis was right."

Administration officials justified the 2003 invasion in part on
assertions that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and was a
threat to the region and the United States. No such weapons have been
found and investigations have blamed the CIA for huge lapses in its
prewar intelligence.

The report, published in the current issue of the quarterly CIA
magazine, Studies in Intelligence, was commissioned by former CIA
Director George Tenet. He resigned last year after fierce criticism over
the faulty Iraqi weapons assessments.

The report said the agency was largely correct in its estimate of
cultural and political postwar issues and "accurately forecast the
reactions of the ethnic and tribal factions in Iraq."

The postwar struggle pitting Sunni Arabs against Shiite and Kurdish
factions has led some analysts, including Saud al-Faisal, foreign
minister of neighboring Saudi Arabia, to conclude Iraq is at risk of
splitting into three pieces.

The Bush administration suggested early in the Iraq war that American
forces would be greeted as liberators by a grateful Iraqi people.

President Bush initially took a cavalier approach to the insurgency,
suggesting it would be no threat to U.S. forces there and declaring:
"Bring 'em on!"

But more than two years later, the country is gripped by a deadly Sunni
Arab insurgency against the Shiite and Kurdish-led government and U.S.
troops. Nearly 2,000 U.S. troops have been killed.

Presented in July 2004, the report said prewar Iraq intelligence also
concluded accurately that Hussein had no operational or collaborative
ties with al-Qaeda and calculated the war's impact on oil markets.

The CIA report, produced by a team led by former CIA Deputy Director
Richard Kerr, was issued as the last in a series of three reports on
Iraq intelligence.

It is unclassified but has not been released publicly until now. The two
earlier reports remain classified.

U.S. involvement in Iraq also came under fire yesterday from former U.N.
weapons inspector Scott Ritter, who said the CIA's faulty WMD
intelligence only provided the pretext for a long-standing U.S. policy
of regime change.

"We had two policies in Iraq. A publicly stated policy of containment
through the maintenance of economic sanctions linked to disarmament, and
... regime change. Regime change was the dominant policy," he said
during an event to promote his new book, "Iraq Confidential," being
published by Nation Books.

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