A terrible, horrible, sickening, disgustingly sorry mess.
Fri Aug 26, 2005 02:38
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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/printerfriendly/aug242005p.html

 Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics
 9241 54th Street North
 Pinellas Park, FL 33782
 727 546 5568
 e-mail: scgcjs@gte.net

 By Richard Daughty
 "The Mogambo Guru"

 August 24, 2005
 [] www.dailyreckoning.com

 The Federal Reserve tiptoed back, hoping I wouldn't notice, into expanding credit, as evidenced by their $2 billion infusion of make-believe money last week. Not too bad, actually. But worse, they actually started down the path of the ultimate fraud, and bought up $1.6 billion of government debt! Hahaha! The government creates a bond, and the damned Federal Reserve creates the money out of thin air to buy the bond! Hahaha! This is fiat money at its finest! Hahahaha! And we wonder why we get so little respect from the rest of the world!

 Of course, this was probably necessitated by the Treasury holding the pedal to the metal and driving us into an astounding level of debt, and as of yesterday they had indebted us by another $57 billion in the first nineteen days of August alone! Three billion bucks a damned day! A day! This takes us to, according to the Treasury's website, a national debt of $7,926,779,954,124.77. Almost eight trillion dollars. And this level of new borrowing increases our debt at over a trillion dollars a year! A trillion!

 As if that was not enough to push me off the deep end, they also allowed the banks to decrease reserves again, down to new historical lows, freeing up money that is supposed to be a hedge against losses from all those loans they have been making all these years to less-than-credit-worthy borrowers. Hahahaha! The reserves that the banks were holding against potential losses due to their profligate lending are now being used to create more loans! So that they will have more losses! And less cushion! With a tone of utter contempt in my voice, these are the depths to which banking has sunk.

 And why are they doing this? Well, as those clever wags at WhiskeyAndGunpowder.com so pithily put it, "As soon as the credit bubble stops expanding, kiss this economy goodbye."

 But what to do with the money? How about borrowing money to buy stocks? Well, Eric J. Fry, in his Rude Awakening column at the Daily Reckoning.com site, reports that stocks are grossly overpriced. "Last year, for example, the S&P 500's 'operating earnings,' the flattering, quasi-fictional results imagined by Wall Street analysts, totaled $66.62. But after applying GAAP standards to these quasi-fictional earnings, and adjusting them for the cost of stock options, the S&P's actual earnings dropped to only $55.25, according to James Montier, equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. That earnings number would put the S&P 500 on a rich PE multiple of 22 times earnings."

 And how do stock prices typically perform after hitting these lofty levels? Very poorly.

 Well, what about bonds then? How about borrowing money to buy bonds? Well, it turns out that bonds are also overpriced, as they are so expensive that they are yielding less than zero, net of taxes and net of inflation! Less than zero real return! So I don't see a whole lot of potential in bonds, either! Hahahaha! And don't get me started on housing, because I am already losing sleep over the housing bubble as it is. Stephanie Pomboy at MacroMavens notes that almost a trillion dollar's worth of mortgages, of which $543 billion is sub-prime, is going to have to be reset sometime in the next eighteen months, a time when interest rates are supposed to be higher than they are now. Already the amount of interest money people owe on the floating-rate mortgages is up 14% year-over-year, and so Pomboy figures that delinquencies are "sure to rise."

 In case you are new to this economics thing, or you are really drunk and you do not notice that my face is contorted in horror at this revelation, economies are not prospering when delinquencies are rising. Economies are only prospering when delinquencies are falling.

 - As you are no doubt aware, I am constantly ready to expound at length about the egregiously, criminally bad way that the Federal Reserve is "managing" the economy, which is, in a nutshell, the continuous, excessive creation of money and credit to finance bubbles. With, I might add, the blessings and encouragement of government, because of the bankrupting expense of installing the wealth-transfer functions of socialism/communism throughout the many levels of government.

 And why am I always so ready to get right in your face and scream about monetary policy until you are dizzy and disgusted with the way I hold you by the neck, how little specks of spittle keep hitting you in the face, and how the vein on my forehead is throbbing throbbing throbbing? Because history is nothing but one dreary lesson, over and over again. Namely, you cannot allow these things. You cannot allow the money supply to expand faster than the economy, because all that new money devalues all the existing money, which causes prices to go up, which puts people into a fund and it destroys the economy. Nor can you have a fiat currency, because there are no natural limits to how much money and credit a government can create, which devalues the money, which causes prices to go up, which puts people into a funk and it destroys the economy.

 Nor can you allow excessive degrees of fractional banking, as there are no natural limits as to how many times a bank can multiply each dollar of deposits, which causes the value of money to go down due to its excessive creation, which causes prices to go up, which puts people into a real funk and it destroys the economy.

 Of course, this brings to mind the French Revolution, which was caused by the government of France creating so much fiat currency that the currency was destroyed, and the people got, as if you had to be told again when I just told you this in the previous sentence, into a really, really, really, really bad mood, (RRRRBM), a concept which is central to the famous Mogambo Bizarro School Of Economics (MBSOE). And one of the principal identities of this school of economic thought is that "RRRRBM is equal to really, really, really, really bad news (RRRRBN)". So in your notes please write this important equation down:

 RRRRBM = RRRRBN

 And to prove it, this morning on the Morning Edition of PBS we learn that there have been 60 murders in Milwaukee so far this year, already equaling the number of murders in all of last year. A local official noted that (as I recall him saying) that people there are "frustrated and angry." Well, news flash to Milwaukee! Get used to it, dudes! This is what ALWAYS happens when the horrific inflationary results of an irresponsible inflationary monetary policy start hitting home. Misery and suffering and anger and crime are what always happens after the boom dies! People become poorer and poorer and angrier and angrier. Bummer.

 And that is why I have been pounding the table for gold and silver. The ongoing devaluation of the dollar means ongoing appreciation in the price of gold, theoretically preserving the buying power of my wealth by offsetting the decline in the value of the dollar that is so bedeviling everyone else that they are robbing each other and beating each other up and killing each other. But all my table pounding was, of course, wasted on a non-receptive audience, as you have no doubt surmised if you have ever talked to anyone about buying gold, especially at dinner time, and your mom ends up yelling at you to shut the hell up about gold and eat your dinner before it gets cold, and your little brother pipes up that you are a creepy little goldbug creep, and you instantly shoot back that his creepy ignorance about monetary policy is what really creeps me out, if you want to know who is the biggest creep around here!

 That is why I was astounded this morning when I opened up my email and found, among the usual hate mails and helpful suggestions (such as the popular "Go to hell, jerk!"), that the father of my buddy, Bob S., has apologized for poking fun of me all these years for being bullish on gold, and to let me know that he is now buying precious metals! Wow! Okay, now I'm walking around with my head in the clouds, as this is one time that The Mogambo was right! I am, as has now been proved, not always wrong about everything! Oh, my heart soars! Or, as Lewis Carroll so deliciously phrased it, oh frabjous day!

 Then, a few hours later when I was in the newsstand buying a copy of Barron's, Mike tells me the same thing! I was floored! What a coincidence!

 Perhaps their change of heart is because they have listened to Rhona O'Connell of Mineweb.com, who writes that "The latest figures from the European Central Bank suggest that the total tonnage (of gold) sold to date in this, the first year of the second central bank Gold Agreement, has reached 506 tonnes, against a limit of 500t."

 So not only have the central banks disgorged themselves of all the gold that they agreed to sell, but have actually exceeded it! Hahaha! And early, too!

 But she cautions us to not get too overwrought about this, as "This of itself is of no great moment as the limits have been breached before, but it does suggest that if the spirit of the agreement is to be fully adhered to, then sales are going to have to drop right off or cease over the remaining six weeks of the current CBGA year, which is September 26th."

 The actual statistics are that "Annual gold fabrication plus bar hoarding demand in 2004 was 3,410 tonnes against physical supplies from the mining sector (net of dehedging) and scrap of 2,850 tonnes (GFMS Ltd. figures). This produced a shortfall of 560 tonnes or 10.8 tonnes per week, much of which was met by net official sector sales."

 For gold to go up in price in the face of all of this adding to world supplies tells me that there is one hell of a lot of interest in buying gold. And without any more of these central bank expansions of supply, the current level of demand should, in theory, cause the price of gold to rise. And it is a rising price means that something that you bought has gone up in price! And it is this delicious rise in price that produces profits! So, Mogambo Investment Tip O' The Day For The Zillionth Day In A Row (MITOTDFTZDIAR): Buy gold.

 But the Gold Anti-Trust Action group, popularly known as GATA, have re-circulated a series of letters with the government, wherein we learn that while there are no actual plans for the government to again confiscate gold from us proletariat trash, like that filthy, commie bastard FDR did, they reserve the right to do it anytime they want. Several people have written and asked what in the hell they can invest in that the government can't, or won't, confiscate. How can they keep their money safe?

 The room is suddenly hushed except for the sharp intake of breath, as each atom in each molecule of each person in the room was instantly galvanized to rapt attention, attending to my every move and gesture. The air crackles with electric tension, as at any moment I am going to answer one of Life's Big Mysteries (LBM). I look out over the crowd, and I see their innocent, trusting faces uplifted to meet my benevolent gaze, and I see the light of hope flicker in their eyes. That is why it breaks my heart to tell you that the sorry answer is that there is nothing that you can do with your money that the damned government cannot come and take, any time they want to.

 A lesson about the grubby confiscatory attitude of governments can, perhaps, best be illustrated by the lesson from modern-day Zimbabwe, as we learn from Peter Spina's newsletter, the Global Watch Gold Forecaster. Once upon a time, some Zimbabwean people and companies had investments in shares in foreign companies, mostly American. The government had nothing. Here is where Mr. Spina takes up the story. "Foreign shares were appropriated in 1984, when the government raided the banks to seize nominee held shares and paid with 4% government bonds for these shares." And then, suddenly, the government owned the shares of foreign companies, denominated in dollars, and they were soon rich. The people now had Zimbabwe government bonds, denominated in Zimbabwe money, both of which went to virtual worthlessness, and they were soon poor.

 And if you think that there is a big difference between the kleptocracy in Zimbabwe and the kleptocracy in the USA, then I know that you are young and I am charmed by your guileless, childlike innocence. I smile in serene indulgence. The Mogambo reaches out his hand as if to gently stroke your head. But instead I rap your thick skull with my bony Mogambo knuckles (BMK), and you shout "Hey! That hurt! Why did you do that, you horrible old man?" My face is a study in kind benevolence as I reply, "As you must grow older and wiser, you are now both older and wiser than you were a few minutes ago, my darling young grasshopper!"

 And I think to myself "One day you will gain sufficient insight, and you will sit up with a start and declare 'The Mogambo was right! We're freaking doomed!' "

 But getting back to the original question, which was how you can protect yourself from the government coming and taking all your stuff, I add that you can't even escape to another country, as the United States is the only country in the world that reserves the right to own you, which gives them the right to track you down anywhere you go in the whole world, and take anything they want, at any time. Welcome to the "land of the free and the home of the brave."

 All of this means that this is another valuable Mogambo lesson (AVML), where we learn that it is important for you to pay attention to how you vote, as each of these grubby government thefts was created by horrible elected officials that we voted for, and all the grubby government thefts in the future will be created by horrible people we will have voted for, too. Makes you think. I hope.

 - If you want to know when was a good time to retire, Puru Saxena writes that "During the entire 19th century, there was zero inflation! Zip! Nada! In fact, we witnessed mild deflation (contraction of money supply) during that entire century. To put it simply, cash saved in 1800 bought roughly the same amount of goods one hundred years later!"

 So the people who retired in 1800 had the same, or greater, standard of living for the next hundred years, because their savings were not eroded by inflation. Yes! If you really want to help the senior citizens of this country, then THIS is the way that you do it! And if you want to help the poor, then this is how you do it! They never get poorer as long as they have a steady income of money!

 And why is there no other time to retire that was as good? Because of the inflation in prices that followed from the inflation in the money supply, caused by the Federal Reserve massively creating money and credit, with gusto bordering on mental illness, from its inception in 1913. Hell, just going back to 1960 he finds that "The money supply grew from $300 billion in 1960 to roughly $10 trillion today! That is an astounding growth rate of 3,300% or a 33-fold increase! This huge rise in the supply of money has caused money to lose its value (purchasing power)." Now, this is nothing new for the disciples of The Mogambo (DOTM), who sit at my feet to learn economic wisdom, but who persist in spending their time bickering and arguing about which smells worse, my feet or my breath?

 Relative olfactory discussions aside, with such a consistent track-record in mismanaging the money, Mr. Saxena goes on to say, "It would be safe to say that going forwards we can expect this trend to continue. Therefore, as more money is introduced into the system by the Fed, the value of paper money will continue to evaporate in real-terms."

 The lesson is that if you are retired on a fixed annuity, or if you are retired and count Social Security as a significant part of your income, then you are indeed screwed, and you need to go back in tim

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