Apocalypse Soon (Cont'd)

Apocalypse Soon (Con't)
By Robert S. McNamara
May/June 2005
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2829

Good faith participation in international negotiation on nuclear
disarmament—including participation in the CTBT—is a legal and
political obligation of all parties to the NPT that entered into force
in 1970 and was extended indefinitely in 1995. The Bush
administration's nuclear program, alongside its refusal to ratify the
CTBT, will be viewed, with reason, by many nations as equivalent to a
U.S. break from the treaty. It says to the nonnuclear weapons nations,
"We, with the strongest conventional military force in the world,
require nuclear weapons in perpetuity, but you, facing potentially
well-armed opponents, are never to be allowed even one nuclear weapon."

If the United States continues its current nuclear stance, over time,
substantial proliferation of nuclear weapons will almost surely
follow. Some, or all, of such nations as Egypt, Japan, Saudi Arabia,
Syria, and Taiwan will very likely initiate nuclear weapons programs,
increasing both the risk of use of the weapons and the diversion of
weapons and fissile materials into the hands of rogue states or
terrorists. Diplomats and intelligence agencies believe Osama bin
Laden has made several attempts to acquire nuclear weapons or fissile
materials. It has been widely reported that Sultan Bashiruddin
Mahmood, former director of Pakistan's nuclear reactor complex, met
with bin Laden several times. Were al Qaeda to acquire fissile
materials, especially enriched uranium, its ability to produce nuclear
weapons would be great. The knowledge of how to construct a simple
gun-type nuclear device, like the one we dropped on Hiroshima, is now
widespread. Experts have little doubt that terrorists could construct
such a primitive device if they acquired the requisite enriched
uranium material. Indeed, just last summer, at a meeting of the
National Academy of Sciences, former Secretary of Defense William J.
Perry said, "I have never been more fearful of a nuclear detonation
than now.… There is a greater than 50 percent probability of a nuclear
strike on U.S. targets within a decade." I share his fears.

A Moment of Decision
We are at a critical moment in human history—perhaps not as dramatic
as that of the Cuban Missile Crisis, but a moment no less crucial.
Neither the Bush administration, the congress, the American people,
nor the people of other nations have debated the merits of
alternative, long-range nuclear weapons policies for their countries
or the world. They have not examined the military utility of the
weapons; the risk of inadvertent or accidental use; the moral and
legal considerations relating to the use or threat of use of the
weapons; or the impact of current policies on proliferation. Such
debates are long overdue. If they are held, I believe they will
conclude, as have I and an increasing number of senior military
leaders, politicians, and civilian security experts: We must move
promptly toward the elimination—or near elimination—of all nuclear
weapons. For many, there is a strong temptation to cling to the
strategies of the past 40 years. But to do so would be a serious
mistake leading to unacceptable risks for all nations.
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Robert S. McNamara was U.S. secretary of defense from 1961 to 1968 and
president of the World Bank from 1968 to 1981.

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Robert S. McNamara
A concise biography of McNamara who was Secretary of Defense under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. McNamara is widley acknowledged as a key "architect" of ...
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