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http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html China and the Final War for Resources
(In Four Parts)
by Bill Ridley
I. Unrestricted War
Unrestricted War: China's Master Plan to Destroy America is a
treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People's
Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes "The Final War over Resources", must be won.
The Colonels state that the aggressor nation "must adjust its own
financial strategy, use currency revaluation or devaluation as
primary weapons, and combine means such as getting the upper hand in public opinion and changing the rules sufficiently to make financial turbulence and economic crisis appear in the targeted
country or area, weakening its overall power, including its
military strength. Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a
major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency bandwidths understood by the American military..."
Can you imagine if U.S. military leaders or politicians made such
threatening comments? People would be up in arms and demanding resignations and Congressional inquiries!
However, in another case where truth is stranger than fiction -
for the most part the U.S. media and government officials are
keeping a lid on this volatile story. As you are about to read,
the Chinese have already positioned themselves to inflict major
damage to the U.S. economy. For those few brave souls in
Washington and the media who are talking, their words are ominous.
Writing in the Los Angeles Times, Gal Luft, executive director of
the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said: "Without
a comprehensive strategy designed to prevent China from becoming an oil consumer on par with the U.S., a superpower collision is in the cards." The New York Times has also weighed in stating that China's actions threaten "the very stability of the global economy."
The final war for the planet's resources has already started. You
name the commodity and China's buying it and consuming it in HUGE quantities. Last year they consumed nearly half of the world's cement, twice the world's consumption of copper, and nearly a third of the world's coal, 90% of the world's steel plus nearly every other commodity you can think of has been in greater demand by China.
However in order to propel such furious economic growth, there is one key commodity you need above all the others. And if you can't get enough of it, having all the other resources won't matter.
The most prized and sought after commodity which makes the world tick is oil. With out it, you have nothing. Your economy would be frozen and your military would be left inept.
As China's Master Plan to Destroy America manifesto outlines, the multifaceted battle plan recommended by the Chinese military has taken shape...
Financially: Using Currency as the Primary Weapon
I hate to admit it, but the Chinese have done a masterful job.
While America's media is hypnotizing us with frivolous
entertainment such as American Idol or The Amazing Race, they aretotally ignoring the perilous economic time bomb the Chinese have placed against us. The Government of China is holding U.S.
currency and Treasury notes in a $1.9 trillion Treasury bond trap.
When they pull the trigger on their "primary weapon," the dollar
will crash and gold will break $600 in a heart beat and just keep
going.
Political and Military Alliances
China has made several deals with OPEC countries whose ideology is very much anti-American. Headlining the list is Iran who President Bush recently singled out as "the world's primary state sponsor of terror pursuing nuclear weapons while depriving its people of the freedom they seek and deserve."
Also alliances have been made with Venezuela who are threatening to cut off oil exports to the U.S. entirely while giving China as much as it wants. These new deals China is making with these and other hostile OPEC countries also involve trading oil in euros not U.S. dollars. The dumping of U.S. dollars for euros would be devastating to an already weakening dollar.
China's plan is both brilliant and deviously well planned. New
alliances with radical groups, arms for oil deals with Iran, a new
military build up, major acquisitions of large western resource
companies such as Noranda are just a few of the multifaceted
maneuvers now taking place.
In my last issue I reviewed the fact the U.S. oil demand is
soaring while domestic supplies are dwindling forcing imports to
increase to 60%. However many of America's foreign suppliers are hostile countries whose ideology and hatred have been forged over the decades and now have reached a boiling point in the Mid East.
Before we get into how the final war for resources is building
momentum let's recap the supply and demand scenarios of the U.S. and China.
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Recommend Message 2 of 6 in Discussion
From: Whitewolfe56® Sent: 2/13/2005 9:56 PM
PART II
China and the Final War for Resources
II. The Growing Demand from a Dwindling Supply
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil grew last year at its fastest pace since 1980, now
averaging 88.1 million barrels a day. Out of that, about 20
million barrels of oil demand comes from the United States.
THAT'S A LOT OF OIL! And remember, once it's burned, it's gone for good!
Over the next twenty years the global demand for oil will increase
sharply, hitting 120 million barrels by 2025. Asia is expected to
consume 80% of that output - that is if there is that much extra
supply capacity. Today production is barely keeping pace with the world's consumption needs as it is.
What is even more concerning is that peak oil production has
already hit all the world's oil producing nations with the
exception of Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Colin Campbell, one of the world's leading oil geologists,
estimates global production will hit its peak this year. Campbell
has stated that the world started using more oil then it found
since 1981 and consuming from reserves of past discoveries ever
since.
Oil Supply Shortages Likely After 2007, New Report Shows
Global oil suppliers could start to have difficulty meeting
growing demand after 2007, according to a study of existing and
planned major oil-recovery projects published this month in
Petroleum Review.
While a flood of new production is set to hit the market over the
next three years, the volumes expected from anticipated new
projects thereafter are likely to fall well below requirements,
the report says.
"There are not enough large-scale projects in the development
pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature areas
and meet global demand growth beyond 2007," said Chris Skrebowski, author of the report, editor of Petroleum Review and a recently appointed Board member of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in London.
Major Oil Firms Actions Reflect a Peak Oil Market
Credit Suisse First Boston reported that major oil companies are
replacing dwindling reserves by acquiring other oil companies
instead of exploring for new fields, a strategic shift with
implications for global oil supplies, according to a recent
report.
"If the actions - rather than the words - of the oil business'
major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future,
then ponder the following.. Crude oil prices have doubled since
2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries
are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been
constructed since 1976. (My Note: The main reason why we have no new oil refineries are the enviromentalist wackos. It would take at least 10 years and millions upon millions in legal fees to ever build a new refinery because you have to fight them every step of the way in court!) And oil tankers are fully booked, but
outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built." - Mark Williams, Technology Review, February 2005
The rate of major new oil field discoveries has fallen
dramatically in recent years.
There were 13 discoveries of over 500 million barrels in 2000, 6
in 2001 and just 2 in 2002, according to the industry analysts IHS
Energy. For 2003, not a single new discovery over 500 million
barrels has been reported.
It appears likely that from 2007, the volumes of new production
will fall short of the need to replace lost capacity from
depleting older fields.
Look at this imbalance: The average American consumes 25 barrels of oil a year. In China, the average is about 1.3 barrels per year; in India, less than one.
The challenge is huge. For China and India to reach just
one-quarter of the level of US oil consumption, world output would have to rise by 44 percent. To get to half the US level, world production would need to nearly double. That's impossible.
The world's oil reserves are finite. And the view is spreading that
global oil output will soon peak. - The Christian Science Monitor,
January 20, 2005
There's a historic oil market squeeze coming and it's clear, not
everyone on the planet will have their oil needs met. The San
Francisco Chronicle predicts that a "social and economic upheaval across the globe" is coming.
Consumption Statistics
We are living in an age where oil demand is escalating at an
unprecedented rate while global production is on the decrease.
Today one barrel of oil is found for every 6 consumed. The day of reasonably priced $35 barrel oil has come to an end.
With about 5% of the world's population, the U.S. consumes about 25% of the world's total oil supply. It's hard to believe that
just 50 years ago, America was producing half the world's oil and
today we can't produce even half of our own needs.
From 1970 to date, our demand has increased from 17.7 million
barrels of oil per day to nearly 21 million barrels. At the same
time domestic oil production is decreasing, having dropped from 10 million barrels per day in 1970 to a projected 5.58 million
barrels in 2005.
As a nation, the United States depends on foreign oil for 60% of
its needs and that amount will only get bigger over time.
The Department of Energy forecasts consumption demand will be 26 million barrels a day or greater by 2020, imports representing
two-thirds of the supply needed.
US Oil Production and Consumption Versus China-Million Barrels Per Day
For America to maintain economic and military dominance, oil
consumption will need to sharply increase. At the same time, other nations are also competing for the same supplies.
The world's second largest consumer of oil is China whose oil
consumption increased by 40% last year. Going forward China's
growing oil needs will present one of the largest obstacles facing
the security of the United States. As you will soon read, their
strategy for assuring themselves adequate supplies has been well
planned economically, politically, and militarily.
As Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham pointed out, oil and
economic strength go hand in hand. "Energy security is a
fundamental component of national security. Military force will be an increasingly important prerequisite to safe guard the flow of foreign oil."
Without more oil for the U.S., the American dream is over.
Without more oil for China, their dream of building a modern economy, strong currency, and a military superpower will be over.
$100 Oil
A startling fact is that world's richest 1 billion people - just
one-sixth of the world's population - account for three-quarters
or more of global consumption of oil, steel, cement, copper,
aluminum, timber, coal, and other energy. You could say it's this
group of consumers who have helped pushed the price of oil up
beyond $50 a barrel.
A United Nations report points out that China's recent prosperity
has raised the living standard of 160 million Chinese who once
existed in poverty. Behind them are another 1 billion who are
awaiting their turn to live a life once thought unattainable. As
the Chinese middle class grows so will the demand of goods and
services which require oil to produce them.
Given the projections from the U.S. Department of Energy and other oil experts, it's not hard to envision $100 oil in the not too
distant future.
As the global trend for greater oil demand grows over the months
ahead it's clear there are those in the world who will get the
short end of the oil supply and other commodities. It's also clear
either the United States or China will not get all the oil they
require. Hence, the Final War for Resources.
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From: Whitewolfe56® Sent: 2/13/2005 10:01 PM
PART III
China and the Final War for Resources
III. China and the Final War for Resources
Using Currency as the Primary Weapon
"Financial war is a form of nonmilitary warfare which is just as
terribly destructive as a bloody war, but in which no blood is
actually shed... When people revise the history books... the
section on financial warfare will command the reader's utmost
attention." -Unrestricted War: China's Master Plan to Destroy
America
The U.S. government has been keeping a lid on the brewing problems with China because of the delicate situation which has the Chinese Central Bank holding billions in U.S. dollars and treasury bonds which Washington fears they might stop buying or sell off. China has been instrumental in helping the U.S. government bank roll its national debt and consequently, this reliance on the Chinese to support has America up against a rock and a hard place.
Meanwhile, the United States is financing its ever ballooning
budget deficit, which is officially reported to be $412 billion in
2004 up $35 billion over 2003.
Adding to the overall debt problem is the trade deficit shortfall
of $575 billion with China accounting for the greatest imbalance
last year of $150 billion. So all told, the nation spent $987
billion more then what it brought in over 2004.
National Debt Increases by over $2 billion daily.
The Treasury Trap: So with this large annual trade surplus China
enjoys with the United States, billions are spent to buy up
Treasury bonds and notes. The total federal debt in FY 2004
exceeded $7.4 Trillion. By the end of January 2005 it was up to
$7.631 Trillion and it is growing at a rate of over $2 billion a
day. Most of this debt is owed to what the Federal Reserve calls
the 'public,' from whom the federal government borrowed and gave T-Bonds, T-bills, etc. in return. But, the 'public' does not mean only U.S. citizens - - it means anyone in the world who owns those IOUs, with a right to the principal and interest pertaining to same.
The United States is the world's largest DEBTOR NATION, and
continue to rely on foreigners to help finance our over spending.
Foreigners hold $1.9 trillion of our debt with China accounting
for 10% or $190 billion. If they or any other major country start
a sell off of the greenback, the U.S. dollar would be in crisis.
"We are beholden to the Chinese by our Treasures. That worries
me." Carla Hills Former U.S. Trade Representative
Added to the treasury notes held by China, the U.S. dollar
reserves of China's central bank soared 271% to $449 billion from 2000 to April of 2004.
Zhu Min, general manager and advisor to the President for the Bank of China was quoted in the China Daily last year saying that: "The United States is benefiting from China using its trade surplus to buy U.S. Treasury paper as a reserve currency, along with other Asian nations. But in the long run, this is not sustainable....
China will focus more and more on domestic demand, which is
growing fast. Then we won't be able to finance the U.S.