William O. Beeman
Killing of Ayatollah Is Start of Iraqi Civil War
Tue Sep 2 23:06:06 2003
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Killing of Ayatollah Is Start of Iraqi Civil War
Commentary, William O. Beeman

Pacific News Service, Aug 29, 2003: The bombing of one of Islam's holiest shrines not only killed an important Shi'a leader, it also signals the first shot in an Iraqi civil war that Middle East experts warned would ensue if Saddam were removed without careful planning.

The assassination of Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim in Najaf on August 28 is the opening volley in the coming Iraqi Civil War. The United States will reap the whirlwind.

One of the most consistent and ominous prewar warnings to the Bush administration by Middle East experts was that removal of Saddam Hussein without the most careful political and social engineering would result in the breaking apart of Iraq into warring factions that would battle each other for decades.

The hawks in the White House would not listen. They were so wedded to the fantasy scenario that the removal of Saddam in an act of "creative destruction" would result in the automatic emergence of democracy. They brushed aside all warnings.

Present-day Iraq was three provinces of the Ottoman Empire before World War I. It was cobbled together by the British for their own convenience after that conflict. The British installed a king, the Saudi Arabian son of the chief religious official of Mecca (Faisal, of Lawrence of Arabia Fame) and glued the whole mess together with the resident British Army.

The three regions were incompatible in ethnicity, religious confession and interests. The Sunni Muslim Kurds occupied the north. The Sunni Arab Bedouins occupied the center and Southwest. The Shi'a Arab and Persian population occupied the South and Southeast. Of the three groups, the Shi'a were largest, with 60 percent of the population. With oil, an outlet to the Persian Gulf and good agricultural land, they would be the natural dominant force in the state the British created. The Kurds would be important, too, because they lived in the region of the country with the largest oil reserves.

However, the British wanted the Sunni Arabs, the smallest faction of the population, to be dominant. They wanted this both to reward Saudi Arabians for helping them fight the Ottomans, and because they had existing clients in the sheikhs who ruled the Arab states of the Gulf.

When the British were finally expelled, and their Saudi ruling family deposed in Iraq in a 1958 nationalist coup, the new Ba'athist Iraqi nationalist rulers had a supremely unruly nation on their hand. The only way to keep power in Sunni Arab hands, and away from the Shi'ites was through ruthless dictatorship and oppression. Saddam Hussein was the supreme master of this political strategy.

Ayatollah al-Hakim's family was victimized by this oppression. Virtually every one of the Ayatollah's male relatives was executed by Saddam's regime. He fled to Iran for years of exile, returning only after Saddam was deposed by the United States. He became one of the principal leaders of the Shi'a community, and a symbol of rising Shi'a power in post-War Iraq. His triumphant return to Iraq and the holy city of Najaf was one of the most celebrated events in recent Iraqi history.

It is still not known who set off the explosion that killed him at the shrine of Ali, grandson of the Prophet Mohammad. It could have been Sunni Arab factions who fear the rise of Shi'a dominance in Iraq, or it could have been his own Shi'a supporters, disappointed with him for cooperating with American policies in Iraq. Or it could have been someone else. What is clear is that his death will now forever be a rallying cry for the Shi'ite community against its enemies.

It is notable that in Shi'ism virtually all significant leaders have been "martyred." Of the 12 historical Imams of the Ithna 'ashara branch of Shi'ism dominant in Iraq and Iran (Ithna 'ashara means "twelve" in Arabic), ten are buried in shrines in Iraq. Their tombs are ever-present reminders of the oppression and struggle of the Shi'a. Now Ayatollah al-Hakim will join them, and with the power of a saint, will inspire generations of grimly dedicated young warriors, determined to wreak vengeance and assert the power of their community. They will be led by his own paramilitary group, the Badr brigade.

Shi'a fury will be directed at the Sunnis to the north. It will also be directed toward United States as the occupying force who both did nothing to prevent this tragedy, and further continued the British doctrine of Sunni favoritism by insisting that the Shi'a religious leaders would never be allowed to come to power. In any case, the forces of retribution are about to be unleashed in a manner hitherto unseen in the region.

Could the United States have done anything to have prevented this tragedy? Of course it could have. As the occupying power U.S. officials knew acutely about the danger to Ayatollah al-Hakim. Since Washington opposed the rise of Shi'a power in Iraq, charges of American indifference or even complicity in his death will soon be flying.

The final question Washington must now face is how to stop this inevitable civil war? When the factional shooting starts, where does the U.S. army, caught in the crossfire, aim its own guns?

William O. Beeman, Director of Middle East Studies at Brown University. He is author of the forthcoming book, Iraq: State in Search of a Nation.

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Sea of grief as Shia mourn their ayatollah
By Justin Huggler
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=439030

01 September 2003

They came in their hundreds of thousands, a great sea of people who filled Baghdad's streets and squares in a huge display of public grief. They wept and pounded their heads and beat their chests in ritual mourning. "God is great," they chanted. "There is no god but Allah." And above their heads they carried a coffin that was almost empty.

Inside was the turban and one hand of Ayatollah Mohammad Bakr al-Hakim, the Shia cleric who died in Friday's car bombing in Najaf, which killed at least 125 people. Ayatollah Hakim's hand was all that could be identified from the pile of mangled flesh. It wasrecognised by his wedding ring.

This was the day the Americans feared, when Iraq's Shia, who have been simmering with frustration at the occupation, finally took their anger to the streets. And from the young men in the crowd to Iraq's most senior Shia clerics, their anger was directed at the Americans, whom they blamed for the breakdown of law and order in Iraq that led to the bombing.

Even Iraq's highest Shia authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has tried to stay out of politics, spoke against the US for the first time. "The Americans bear responsibility for the bombing and for security in Iraq," he said.

The mourners carried a picture of the dead cleric above their heads. Black banners flew beside them. And over Saddam Hussein's former palace, where the American occupation authority is housed, such was the concern that six helicopters kept guard, wheeling in a tight circle overhead.

And the people kept on coming ? 300,000 by some counts. They came from the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, and from the wretched slums of Sadr City where Baghdad's Shia were kept impoverished and weak. These were the victims repressed for so long under Saddam. Yesterday they reclaimed the streets of Baghdad.

The occupation forcesclosed Iraq's border with Iran to stop thousands more pouring in.

Baghdad has seen other huge Shia funerals since the fall of Saddam ? but none was so politically charged as this. They came more in anger than in sorrow. Some carried guns. An Iraqi police minibus was stoned, smashing the front. If whoever was behind the bombing in Najaf wanted to destabilise the US occupation, they seemed to have succeeded.

Ayatollah Hakim had many enemies among the Shia, as well as supporters. They did not unite in his death ? but even among his opponents people were angry at the murder of 125 people on the steps on one of Shia Islam's two holiest shrines. That was a measure of how well directed the bomb was.

The dead cleric's brother, Abd al-Aziz ? a member of the US-appointed Iraqi "Governing Council" ? told the crowds: "It is necessary to put an end to the American plan for occupation, because it is useless ... Those troops are ultimately responsible for security and stability. They are responsible for the innocent blood that is being shed every day in Najaf, Baghdad, Basra and Mosul and all over Iraq." Another Shia member of the council, Muhammad Bahr al-Ulum, resigned in protest at the bombing, saying there was a "dangerous security-void in Iraq", and he would not return until security was under Iraqi control.

In Najaf, police accused al-Qa'ida of the bombing, saying they had arrested a number of "suspicious" people. Two were identified as Kuwaiti, six as Jordanians of Palestinian origin. The rest were Saudis and Iraqis, all of them allegedly "committed to al-Qa'ida". Suspicion has also fallen on Iraqi resistance groups, some of which are Saddam loyalists, but many of which oppose both the old regime and the US occupation.

Ayatollah Hakim had many enemies who may have been behind his assassination. But the fact that the bomb was detonated among a large crowd suggests that whoever was responsible wanted to destabilise the occupation.

The anger spilt over into violence yesterday. There were unconfirmed reports that two people were killed when the guards of Moqtada al-Sadr, a young firebrand from Sadr City, started shooting. Iraqi police confirmed one death.

The Americans, already facing daily guerrilla attacks from Sunni groups, will now be confronted by Shia anger as well. And the funeral procession is not over. From Baghdad it moves today to the holy city of Karbala, and then to Najaf.