opinion journal

Expect the Unexpected

Wed Aug 6 20:49:00 2003
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Expect the Unexpected
The California recall has more surprises in store.
Wednesday, August 6, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT
http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110003845

The effort to recall California's Gov. Gray Davis has brought us one surprise after another. The next week could see yet more unexpected turns in what has become a classic political soap opera, including a possible postponement of the Oct. 7 recall vote.

Almost everyone expects Arnold Schwarzenegger to use his appearance tonight on "The Tonight Show" to explain why he isn't seeking the governorship and then to tout the candidacy of former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan. But what if Arnold makes a last-minute decision to join the race? Those who know his Hollywood negotiating tactics tell journalists he often keeps producers on hold until the last minute and then jumps in with a "total commitment." The Western Political Report concluded yesterday that "Schwarzenegger is not out of the running and Riordan is not a sure thing to jump in." His campaign aides say they honestly don't know what he will do. Apparently, the 73-year-old Riordan would strongly prefer his close friend Mr. Schwarzenegger to run instead.

On Monday, journalists were intrigued to learn that Rep. Darryl Issa, a San Diego congressman who had given $1.7 million to put the recall on the ballot, had stopped paying the legal bills to defend against lawsuits challenging the recall's validity. Mr. Issa remains a candidate to replace Gov. Davis, although he has been badly damaged by unrelenting attacks from the Davis camp. Curiously, some of the legal bills he had been paying are now being picked up by none other than Arnold Schwarzenegger, who gave a $50,000 donation to Rescue California, a leading pro-recall group, just last Sunday. Run or not, the actor is still taking a keen interest in the outcome of the recall process.

Shawn Steel, a former Republican Party state chairman, says that Mr. Schwarzenegger was running full tilt and hiring a large campaign staff until signals suddenly changed about 10 days ago. He speculates that Mr. Schwarzenegger and his wife, Maria Shriver, were reminded that a top Democratic strategist had warned the LA Weekly his foes would wage a vicious personal campaign against him through the tabloids.

But that may be less of a factor since last Friday's bombshell from Attorney General Bill Lockyer warning fellow Democrat Mr. Davis not to repeat the kind of "trashy puke" campaign against opponents that the governor ran when seeking re-election last year. Mr. Lockyer told the Sacramento Bee that he had been "counseling" Democrats to avoid the personal attacks in this year's recall campaign. "If they do the trashy campaign on Dick Riordan . . . I think there are going to be prominent Democrats that defect and just say, 'We're tired of that puke politics. Don't you dare do it again or we're just going to help pull the plug.' " Were Mr. Davis either directly or indirectly to attack either Mr. Riordan or Mr. Schwarzenegger, he could easily respond by citing Mr. Lockyer's comments--an unusual attack against a leader of his own party--and portray Mr. Davis as employing the desperate tactics of a cornered man.

We won't know until tonight what Mr. Schwarzenegger has decided to do, but it is interesting that Jamie Lee Curtis, his close friend and co-star in "True Lies," was Jay Leno's guest Tuesday, a day before Mr. Schwarzenegger himself. Should Mr. Schwarzenegger not run, the two leading GOP candidates are likely to be Mr. Riordan and Bill Simon, the GOP nominee who lost to Mr. Davis last year by less than 5%. Mr. Simon has added key campaign advisers in response to criticism of the disorganization that plagued his last race and may be heeding advice that he will have to invest substantial personal wealth in the abbreviated 60-day campaign. Another Republican candidate, state Sen. Tom McClintock, has impressive policy credentials but no personal wealth. So far, he hasn't made much headway in raising the millions of dollars a statewide campaign would require.

All of this presumes there will be a recall election on Oct. 7. A slew of lawsuits seeking to short-circuit or delay the recall have been filed, most of them groundless. But Rick Hasen, a Loyola law professor who specializes in election statutes, says one suit bears watching. Filed by the NAACP, it alleges that the use of punch-card ballots in three California counties violates the equal protection provisions of the Constitution that the U.S. Supreme Court cited in Bush v. Gore. Because some counties with punch-card voting have high rates of error in counting ballots, the argument is that people in those areas have their vote valued less than in counties using other technology. Mr. Hasen notes that an Illinois district court once accepted this argument and says "we could see a single federal judge halt the election to resolve this kind of claim."

California's recall has been ridiculed and reviled as democracy run amok. But nothing has so energized Californians about politics in years. The recall campaign may actually get voters to thinking about what kind of solutions to the state's budget crisis they would support. But before that can happen the names of the candidates have to be known along with whether or not the election date will be delayed. Even after that is resolved, we can expect a slew of surprises.

JOHN FUND'S POLITICAL DIARY
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Aug. 6 — Kobe Bryant made his first court appearance in his sexual assault case today, as ABCNEWS was told that examiners found evidence the NBA superstar's accuser had "vaginal tearing."

WRONG, SHE COMPLAINED ABOUT ANAL TEARING, AS REPORTED ON MSNBC
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Sports/kobebryant_hearing030806.html

Bryant, 24, is accused of sexual assault for allegedly raping a 19-year-old woman who worked at an exclusive resort where he stayed while he was in Colorado for knee surgery in late June. The Los Angeles Lakers guard, who is married and has an infant daughter, has admitted committing adultery with the woman but insists the sex was consensual.

Yea, but not in the ass!

Search engine: Google found 10 results. The query sent was Kobe Bryant; rape case.
http://infospace.abcnews.com/_1_RVOUE704MLFPHN__info.abcnws/dog/results?otmpl=dog/webresults.htm&qcat=web&ran=&qkw=Kobe+Bryant%3B+rape+case&image.x=7&image.y=6&image=Search&top=1&start=&ver=8489 

• Democracy - refers to people ruling themselves — APFN, Thu Aug 7 15:40
• Arnold Schwarzenegger to Run for Calif. Governor — Arnold Schwarzenegger, Wed Aug 6 21:41
• Arnold Schwarzenegger is Bohemian Grove's pick for Californ — David, Thu Aug 7 00:15