AAM
 

The American Action Market (AAM)

Tue Aug 5 14:56:45 2003
64.140.158.11

The American Action Market (AAM)
http://www.americanactionmarket.org/concept.htm 

Analysts often use prices from various markets as indicators of potential events. The use of orange futures contract prices by analysts of the Florida weather is a classic example. The Pentagon briefly attempted to apply this technique to terrorism, assassination, and war [articles] [archive of Pentagon site].
http://www.americanactionmarket.org/policyanalysismarket.org/

The American Action Market (AAM) refines this approach by trading futures contracts that deal with the two most important questions facing the world today: (1) What will the U.S. government do next? (2) What is informing the U.S. government's current behavior?

Some of the contracts traded on AAM will be based on objective data and observable events, as on a horse track, e.g.

* the next White House lie to break into the news
* the next country to which the White House will issue an ultimatum, and when
* the next foreign leader to move from the CIA payroll to White House "most wanted" list
* the lifespan of various DARPA projects, such as Total Information Awareness [site] and Babylon [site]
* the first White House staffer to resign in disgrace, and when
* the President's approval rating on the day before Saddam is captured or killed

Other AAM contracts will more closely resemble stocks on the market; they will be based on possibilities and scenarios that may or may not be verifiable, but that may be progressively revealed over time (e.g. via journalistic sleuth-work, public statements by concerned politicians, or Congressional hearings):

* how and at what stage the White House officially decided to use the attacks of September 11, 2001 as a reason for invading Iraq [article]
* whether Rumsfeld was the first, the morning of September 12, 2001, to decree that the attacks were the "Pearl Harbor" needed for attacking Iraq, or whether the idea came first from others [article]
* whether the invasion of Afghanistan had been planned from the start as a stepping-stone to an attack on Iraq, or whether the decision to attack Iraq was made only once the troops were massed nearby
* whether or not the President was conscious of overt lying in his various pre-war speeches, or whether the decisions to lie were taken by others, with the President thinking himself to be truthful
* whether or not the expulsion of U.S. and British oil companies from Iraq between 1972 and 1975 was an important long-term factor in the 2003 war on Iraq, and in what way [article]
* to what degree neo-conservatives Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Abrams and other students of Leo Strauss (who may have taught that it was necessary for elites to lie to the public) relie on Strauss's teachings in their daily decisions [article]
* whether or not Iraq's 2001 switch to the euro as its trading currency, and Iran's and Venezuela's contemplation of similar steps, was a factor in U.S. decisions leading to the 2003 war on Iraq [article]

Contracts of the second type will take much longer to mature, but are necessary in an environment where a great deal of information is kept under lock and key by a secretive U.S. administration. As evidence is accumulated to prove or disprove a particular future, its market value will change, possibly helping researchers evaluate likelihoods; also, those betting for or against it will win or lose money accordingly. Contracts of both types will be issued into AAM as specific potential events and scenarios of interest are identified.

Traders who are registered with AAM will use their money to acquire contracts. An AAM trader who believes that the price of a specific futures contract under-predicts the future status of the issue on which it is based can attempt to profit from his belief by buying the contract. The converse holds for a trader who believes the price is an over-prediction: she can be a seller of the contract. This price discovery process, with the prospect of profit and at pain of loss, may possibly help to shed light on some the most important questions facing the world today.

The issues represented by AAM contracts may be interrelated. For example, the exposure of another lie in a pre-war speech by the President may affect the fortunes of high-level cabinet members, and the next corporate scandal to erupt may affect the pace of military operations overseas. The trading process at the heart of AAM allows traders to structure combinations of futures contracts. Such combinations represent predictions about interrelated issues that the trader has knowledge of and thus may be able to make money on through AAM. Observing these trader-structured derivatives may conceivably result in a substantial refinement in predictive power; this possibility is certainly worth the gamble, given the stakes.

The AAM trading interface presents A Market in the Future of the World. Trading on AAM is placed in the context of U.S. government actions using a trading language specially designed for the realities of military aggression, corporate clientelism, information manipulation, and complete lack of transparency (i.e. secrecy). AAM will be active and accessible 24/7 and should prove as engaging as it is informative.
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02:00 AM Aug. 04, 2003 PT

Though there was an outcry over the Pentagon's terrorism futures market, a similar online exchange is in the works to predict what the U.S. government is up to.

The American Action Market will offer various Washington "futures" that can be bet upon and traded.
FULL STORY:
http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59879,00.html



AAM is a consortium of computer scientists, political scientists and sociologists from some of the leading laboratories, institutes and universities worldwide. They are involved in implementing the technologies that will make possible the trading in American action futures, the definition of the AAM trading language, and assessment of the value of certain securities when they mature. In addition, a number of non-affiliated individuals with competences from economics to computer science are contributing to the various facets of AAM research, development, and implementation on a formal and informal basis. More information on participating institutions will be posted on this page on or before August 15.
http://www.americanactionmarket.org/orgs.htm