Anonymous
Experts on Iraq /A D.C. truth squad emerges
Sat Oct 2, 2004 02:58
64.140.158.77

Editorial: Experts on Iraq /A D.C. truth squad emerges
Address:http://www.startribune.com/stories/561/5009661.html

A quiet but important struggle is taking place in Washington, D.C., over
the situation in Iraq:

Professionals in the State Department, the intelligence community and
the military are trying to get word to the American public that the
United States is losing control of the situation.

They are determinedly contradicting the fairy tales of progress coming
from President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on the campaign
trail.

These experts should be listened to; they have no ax to grind except
that they abhor lies, distortions and the effect those have on the
pursuit of effective policy.

Several weeks ago, a classified national intelligence estimate on Iraq,
prepared in July by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), was leaked
to the media.

It painted a very gloomy picture of the situation, with the best the
United States could hope for going forward was that Iraq would continue
as it is now -- a country convulsed by violence, with little prospect
for peace, economic and political stability or effective reconstruction.
Things could, however, get markedly worse, and Iraq could slip into
all-out civil war.

When asked about the report, Bush said the people who wrote it were just
"guessing," a word he later amended to "estimating." Either way, he was
dismissive of the report and continued unabashed to embellish his
fairy-tale view.

Whereupon two earlier reports from the intelligence council suddenly
were made available to the press. These were written months before the
invasion of Iraq, and they predicted the chaos and insurgency that now
grip that country. The message was clear: Don't buy the president's
dismissal of the July NIC report. The NIC has a track record on Iraq,
and it's a good one. Look at what it predicted before the invasion. Look
at what Bush chose to ignore.

Indeed, most of the NIC record on Iraq is good. The one exception is the
NIC's October 2002 national intelligence estimate that grossly
exaggerated Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs. It has been
thoroughly discredited, and members of the NIC now complain that they
were pressured to write it too quickly and that too little attention was
paid to important qualifiers. Burned once, the NIC appears intent, thank
heaven, on not being burned again.

In addition, high-ranking military, diplomatic and intelligence
officials are talking with increasing frequency to reporters for the
Washington Post, New York Times and other news organizations. A story
last Wednesday in the Post began,
"A growing number of career professionals within national security
agencies believe that the situation in Iraq is much worse, and the path
to success much more tenuous, than is being expressed in public by top
Bush administration officials. ..."

The same day in the Times, a story on Iraq began, "Over the past 30
days, more than 2,300 attacks by insurgents have been directed against
civilians and military targets in Iraq, in a pattern that sprawls over
nearly every major population center outside the Kurdish north. ..."
Even Secretary of State Colin Powell has departed from the positive
administration message. Yes, he said on a Sunday talk show, the
insurgency is getting worse.

In a column on today's Commentary page, famed Vietnam War leaker Daniel
Ellsberg asks where the Iraq leakers are. The answer is that they exist,
and they are beginning an effort to bring some reality to the picture
being painted of events in Iraq.

These are people whose careers have been entirely devoted to the service
of this nation. They're not partisan; they're worried professionals who
deserve to be heard and to be believed. They warn that the United States
is headed for a destructive quagmire in Iraq. Implicitly, they also warn
Americans not to believe the Mother Goose tales being peddled by Bush
and Cheney. That's especially good and timely advice.
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National Intelligence Council knew